比特币经济学 7 : 路径

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比特币经济学:基于BitcoinSV的全新视角来重新构想世界经济格局 #

Recreating Economics based on Bitcoin : Reimagining the world economic landscape based on a new perspective of BitcoinSV #

CONTENTS (目录) #

比特币经济学 : 首页
比特币经济学 1 : 开讲
比特币经济学 2 : 法律
比特币经济学 3 : CSW
比特币经济学 4 : 法币崩溃
比特币经济学 5 : 核心概念定调
比特币经济学 6 : 经济危机 HOT !!!
比特币经济学 7 : 路径 HOT !!!
比特币经济学 8 : 万链归一
比特币经济学 9 : 产业区块链
比特币经济学 10 : 去中心化
比特币经济学 11 : 代际剥削
比特币经济学 12 : 族群矛盾
READ MORE (更多文章)……

Conversation : 2020.4.11 ~ 4.14 #

hslayj:
今天聊聊BSV改变世界的实现路径的顺序的一种可能性,首先第一阶段是BSV的初生期,主要目标是生存。

1,通过法律诉讼完成中本聪身份的合法确认,通过郁金香解封完成中本聪身份的密码学确认,完成对BTC区块链的正统性替代。
2,通过合法化可监管的token发行,逐步淘汰非法集资ICO,正规化合法合理项目的token化数字融资路径,完成对币圈万币归一的数字金融体系整合。
3,通过区块链领域的网络效应,逐步建立区块链领域的底层行业标准,通过行业先发优势吸引各类行业链进行生态迁移,完成对链圈万链归一的区块链行业应用整合。
4,通过区块链带来的新兴技术领域信用红利,完成对传统互联网和移动互联网的生态升级——链上互联网(Metanet),促使所有企业应用区块链产业链完成产业的信用赋能,逐步淘汰落后反应的信息产业企业,实现区块链领域的万物上链。
Today we talk about the possibility of BSV changing the order in which the world is realized. The first stage is the infancy of BSV, whose main goal is survival.

  1. Completed the legal confirmation of satoshi nakamoto’s identity through legal proceedings, cryptographic confirmation of satoshi nakamoto’s identity through tulip unsealing, and completed the legal replacement of BTC block chain.
  2. By legalizing and regulating token issuance, phase out illegal fund-raising icos, formalize token digital financing paths for legitimate and reasonable projects, and complete the integration of digital financial system that integrates ten thousand COINS into one coin.
  3. Through the network effect in the block chain field, gradually establish the underlying industry standard in the block chain field, attract all kinds of industry chains to carry out ecological migration through the first-mover advantage of the industry, and complete the application integration of the block chain industry where chain circle and chain converge. 4, through block chain of the emerging technology credit bonus, complete the upgrading to the traditional Internet and mobile Internet ecological chain on the Internet (Metanet), made all of enterprise application block can complete industry chain industry chain of credit assignment, phasing out backward reaction of the information industry enterprises, to achieve chain block chain in the field of all things.

hslayj:
其次,当BSV正式度过初生期后,将拥有比较明确的市场标准和盈利模式以及运用场景,BSV的神秘面纱被彻底揭开,在这种情况下,区块链应用将正式进入国际政治视野,为了不让自己国家在新兴产业赛道上落后,各国政府肯定会有相应的应对措施,这个时候BSV开始进入成长期。

1,将会有一些政府,在传统金融赛道上缺乏竞争能力,国家传统信息与金融产业对新兴区块链产业的压制势力不够强势,这些国家会完成早期的BSV合法合规化尝试,主要行为包括允许BSV产业在本国的发展和推广,甚至亲自参与到Metanet的政府型应用场景的构建中。

2,当BSV燎原之势已成时,将会有越来越多的国家将原有支持的区块链产业生态平行移植到BSV生态中来,完成BSV生态中的生态位竞争,甚至我们熟知的一些国家项目例如数字货币DCEP、CBDC、Libra可能都会运用BSV的区块链底层技术进行应用普及和国际化普及,然而在这个时候,生态位竞争能力并不等同生态生存能力,很多链上尝试和标准将在竞争中逐渐失败或者枯萎,BSV链上生态的用户体验、多样性、健壮性和效率性等基础特性将因为行业标准竞争而逐渐得到保障。

3,BSV的应用场景和领域逐渐加强后,BSV可能会产生比较大的金融流动性危机,对于许多金融管制国家造成金融体系的流动性风险,这个时候一个基于最小共识的区块链产业国际联盟将会出现,一些先知先觉的国家将首先完成区块链领域国际法的制定与执行,该联盟的初始规模可能并不大,但是可能会因为其独特的产业优势,而不断吸收新鲜的国际力量,最后成为一个几乎能与美元体系并驾齐驱的国际区块链联盟,为比特币的国际化立法打下基础。当比特币的国际政治地位确立的时候,比特币基本就完成了其本身的成长期,到了这一步,比特币基本也就很难被杀死了。
Second, when the BSV formally through the primary stage, will have a more clear market standards and profit model and the use of scenario, the mysteries of the BSV be opened completely, in this case, the block chain application will be officially entered the international political field of vision, in order not to let their country in the emerging industry on the track behind, governments will have corresponding measures, when the BSV began to trot.

1, there will be some of the government, the lack of competition ability in traditional financial track, traditional information and financial industry chain industry in emerging area of pressing force is not strong, these countries will be completed early BSV legal compliance to try, the main behavior including allowing BSV industry in the country’s development and the promotion, or even personally involved in the government of Metanet model building of application scenarios.

2, when the BSV start a prairie fire trend has become, there will be more and more countries will be the original support block chain industry ecological parallel migration to the BSV, complete the BSV ecological niche in the competition, even we know some national projects such as digital currency DCEP, CBDC, Libra will use BSV chain blocks the underlying technology for application of the widespread popularization and internationalization, however at this time, niche competition ability is not equal to ecological viability, tried a lot of chain and standard will fail in the competition gradually or wither, The basic features of ecological user experience, diversity, robustness and efficiency on the BSV chain will be gradually guaranteed due to the competition of industry standards.

3, after the BSV application scenarios and field gradually strengthen, BSV may produce larger financial liquidity crisis, for many causes the liquidity risk of the financial system, financial regulation country this time a minimum consensus based block chain industry international alliance will appear, some countries will be the first to complete block chain clairvoyance the formulation and implementation of international law, the initial size of the union may not be large, but may be because of its unique industrial advantages, and constantly absorbing new international force, finally become an almost can keep pace with the dollar system of the international union of chain blocks, Lay the foundation for the internationalization legislation of bitcoin. When bitcoin’s international political status is established, bitcoin has basically completed its growth stage. At this stage, bitcoin is very difficult to kill.

hslayj:
第三,当比特币国际化规则基本确立,并形成了一个由国家联盟为主导的国际法律保障体系的时候,比特币也就正式进入到了繁荣期,并拥有和当代的美元体系分庭抗礼的能力。

1,具有比特币先发优势的国家,将会逐渐适应比特币的非通胀经济体系逻辑,会逐渐开始将BSV作为国家外贸结算货币和国家金融储备外汇,首先这么做的国家将会拥有两套货币信用体系,传统法币体系和数字货币BSV体系,这个时候的法币体系超发将会使得两套体系的体系力量发生扭转,法币体系的信用流失将逐渐被数字货币BSV所承接,而法币带来的信用体系崩溃将会因为国家有了第二套信用体系而不会对国家经济带来灾难性影响,完成数字货币诺亚方舟对法币灾民的拯救行为,这种金融体系的借尸还魂效应,将彻底解决法币体系的高额债务对国家财政带来的巨大负担问题,使得新兴数字货币金融体系的国家完成国际竞争的经济领先。

2,出于数字货币示范效应国家的先例,全世界范围内的BSV普及将会得到极大的推动,BSV将成为全球贸易的主要流通货币和国家外汇储备的主要储备货币,BSV背后的国家联盟将拥有十分巨大的军事反抗能力,使得BSV体系不再可能被单一的大国威慑所毁灭。而对于传统法币体系的坚持国来说,在军事上并不具备碾压比特币体系的能力,在经济上仍然有巨大的传统债务负担,在发展上国际合作伙伴慢慢开始并不依赖美元体系支撑,法币的水池越来越小,传统法币体系的坚持国将面临要么枯萎要么转型的无奈选择,传统法币体系将彻底式微,比特币体系甚至可以主动通过条约补贴的方式吸引最后的加盟国,完成兵不血刃的体系转型,基于人类命运共同体的比特币体系将完成全世界范围内的系统性整合。

3,当比特币经济体系开始作用于全球的时候,国际化争端将会因为传统联合国的结构性问题而使得矛盾日益尖锐,联合国的算力决策改革将会逐渐被提上日程,基于算力规则的联合国政治结构将能够更好的保证联合国始终代表的是全人类最大利益体的声音,保证联合国的执法权始终能够得到算力联盟的响应,从而有了比特币金融体系的执法保障,到这一步为止,人类文明基本就完成了从暴力权力型文明正式转入信用权力型文明。
Third, when the rules of bitcoin internationalization were basically established and an international legal guarantee system dominated by national alliances was formed, bitcoin officially entered the boom period and was able to compete with the modern dollar system.

1, with COINS first mover advantage, will gradually adapt to the currency of logic, non-inflationary economic system will gradually began to BSV as the national foreign trade settlement currency and the country’s financial reserves, the first countries to do so will have two sets of monetary credit system, the traditional legal tender system and digital currency BSV system and legal tender for this time of the system of super hair will make two sets of system of system power shift, fiat system of credit loss will undertake by digital currency BSV, gradually and fiat will bring credit system collapse will because the country, with a second set of credit system but not disastrous influence on the national economy, To complete the rescue of legal currency victims by digital currency Noah’s ark, the debt recovery effect of the financial system will completely solve the huge burden of the high debt of the legal currency system on the national finance, so that the emerging countries of the digital currency financial system can lead the economy in the international competition.

2, the precedent for digital currency demonstration effect, the BSV worldwide popularity will get a great push, BSV will become the main currency of the global trade and the main reserve currency, China’s foreign exchange reserves the country behind the BSV alliance will have great military resistance ability, makes the BSV system is no longer possible was destroyed by a single big deterrent. To adhere to the traditional legal tender system, the military does not have the ability to crush the currency system, on the economy there are still huge traditional debt burden, on the development of international partners began to slowly does not depend on the dollar system support, fiat sink more and more small, adhere to the traditional legal tender system will face either wither or transformation of helpless choice, traditional legal tender system will completely faded, and the currency system by treaty subsidies can even take the initiative to attract the members joined, complete a firefight system transformation, the currency system based on the community of human destiny will complete the systemic integration of worldwide.

3, when the currency began to effect the global economic system, international disputes will be because of the structural problems of traditional UN makes increasingly acute contradictions, the UN’s work force will gradually be decision-making reform agenda, based on the rules of work force UN political structure will be able to better ensure that the United Nations always represents the best interests of all mankind the voice of the body, guarantee the law enforcement can be always calculate force response of the alliance, which had the currency financial system of law enforcement and security, by the end of this step is basic human civilization was completed from violent power model formally into credit model civilizations.

hslayj:
最后,是比特币体系的成熟期,在这个时期内,比特币的规则已基本完成了,比特币世界体系规则的建立的主要目的将是完成这个世界的永续性逻辑建设,使得人类文明摆脱建设后毁灭、毁灭后再建设的权力诅咒,同样也摆脱因为发展不均衡带来的新旧势力冲突的修昔理德陷阱,完成人类组织的自然发育过程(诞生、成长、死亡)的常规化,而不会让区域型组织的自然死亡带来全人类的灾难(大型战争与全局性金融危机)。

1,完成比特币体系内的军事裁剪协议约定和核裁军约定,彻底消除人类瞄准自己的武器,可以通过循序渐进的方式完成各个国家的军事资源上链、军事物资产能上链、核设施位置上链、军事流动信息上链、军事裁军财务质押型智能合约等方式,完成军事体系的透明化和可执行化,彻底消除战争的起因——恐惧猜疑链,由于即使单个国家隐瞒信息也无法通过侵略战争而掠夺比特币财富(因为国际法庭拥有逆转转账权权力),而隐瞒信息带来的智能合约违约风险和巨大的军事投入痕迹暴露风险,都会逐渐使得国家慢慢丧失大规模战争的暴力能力,这会使得军事裁军和核裁军对于所有国家来说,都是在经济上和政治上的帕累托最优解。

2,当国家和地区都逐渐丧失军事暴力能力后,人类需要开始着手构建基于可破产的有限责任政府的逻辑结构,可以由一些发达地区首先尝试,方案成熟后慢慢推广,使得地缘政治博弈逻辑,彻底从暴力逻辑转型至经济与秩序逻辑,使得城市破产和国家破产常规化,使所有人类组织形式都是服务于人而不是反过来奴役或者控制人。

3,通过周期平权化股权式城市权力选举逻辑(见3.3-3.8区块链选举游戏),完成穷人的政治权力变现问题解决底层穷人的生存问题,由于城市权力的股权化逻辑,可以使城市的日常管理很好的反应在城市股价上,使得政治不再是一个赢家通吃的零和博弈,即使政治选举当选也面临着城市破产和城市股票增值的双重业绩标准,职业政治家将和职业经理人一样成为普通职业,政治家的平常话、终身职业化、高薪化都将成为可能。

4,人们开始逐渐习惯政治逻辑经济化的新常态,所有政治问题都将变得可以被量化,比如土地权力问题、移民新增问题、社会发展问题、平权社会成本问题,精英主义将慢慢替代传统的平均主义思潮,人类的各类组织形态例如公司、城市、国家(城市联盟)都会因为全球性经济竞争问题而保持进取心,如同达尔文的进化论一样持续保持进化活力。
Finally, is the maturity of the currency system, in this period, the rules of the currency has been basically completed, the currency the main purpose of the establishment of the rules of the world system will be completed this sustainability logic construction of the world, makes the human civilization from construction after destruction, destruction before the power of the curse, as well as get rid of conflict because of unbalanced development of old and new forces of Richmond thucydides trap, with the natural development process of human tissue (birth, growth, death) of routinization, rather than the regional organization of natural death to bring the disaster of mankind (large war and the global financial crisis).

1, complete the currency system of military tailoring agreement and nuclear disarmament agreement, eliminate human aim their weapons, can be done through the way of gradual military resources from all countries on the chain, nuclear facilities, military supplies capacity chain chain, chain, military flow information on military disarmament financial pledge type intelligent methods such as contract, complete the system of military transparency and the executable, and eliminate the cause of the war - fear chain suspicion, because even if individual countries to hide information also fail the currency wars of aggression and plunder wealth (because of the international court of justice has reverse transfer power). However, the smart contract default risk brought by the concealment of information and the huge exposure risk of the military investment trace will gradually make the country gradually lose the ability of large-scale war violence, which will make military disarmament and nuclear disarmament are the pareto optimal solution in economy and politics for all countries.

2, when the countries and regions are losing ability of military violence after the human need to set out to build based on the limited liability of the government’s logic structure of bankruptcy, can first try to by some developed regions, mature slowly promotion, makes the geopolitical game logic, logical transition from violence thoroughly and order logic to economy, bankruptcy and makes city national bankruptcy routinization, make all forms of human tissue is to serve the people not the other way round slavery or control people.

3, through election cycle, equality, equity type city power logic chain election (see 3.3 to 3.8 blocks game), completed the political power of the poor to liquidate the bottom of the poor survival problems to solve the problem, because the city power capitalization stock right logic, can make the daily management of the city a good reaction on the city’s share price, make politics is no longer a zero-sum game winner take all, even if the political election is faced with bankruptcy cities and city stock appreciation of dual performance standards, professional politicians will become ordinary professional and professional managers, the politician’s usual words, lifelong professional, high salary will be possible.

4, people begin to gradually used to the new normal political logic of economic, all political issues will become can be quantified, such as land rights, immigration of new problems, social development, parity social costs, elitism will gradually replace traditional egalitarian ethos, human form of organizations such as companies, city, state (city) will remain motivated because of the global economic competition issues, like Darwin’s theory of evolution continues to evolve.

hslayj:
以上内容是我所思考的比特币经济学带来的新视角,与传统的国家视角肯定是有很多不同的,这套经济理论如果被广为流传,可能会加速各个关键节点的到来时间,不过总体发展顺序应该不会差太多,从这个视角可以看到比特币区块链世界带来的最大逻辑转变是国家暴力权力逻辑向比特币区块链的诚实权力逻辑转变,这套体系对于整个人类文明的意义是十分巨大的,而诚实的世界只能靠诚实的路径和体系去达成,只要BSV没有死,其它区块链不管技术上、力量上、财务上拥有多大的影响力,都无法绕过一个谎言鸿沟——凭什么这条链可以通过抄袭中本聪的思想来取代中本聪的体系,这也是为什么我说BSV如果都成不了,区块链领域将没有生还者,更别说币圈那些整天嘴巴跑火车的诈骗犯了。
The above content is what I think of the currency to bring a new perspective of economics, and the traditional perspective is certainly there are many different countries, if the economic theory was widely circulated, may speed up the arrival time of each key nodes, but overall development order should not bad too much, from the perspective of the world can see the currency block chain state power is the biggest logic transformation logic to the currency block power logic chain of honesty, the significance of the system to the whole human civilization is very big, can only rely on the honesty and honest world path and the system to achieve, as long as the BSV no death, Other block chain regardless of technology, strength, financial have how old influence, cannot bypass a lie divide - with what the chain can be replaced by copying the idea that the hearing in the in the power system, which is why I said BSV, if - they don’t block chain areas there will be no survivors, not to mention money circle the fraudster mouth all day long to run the train.

hslayj:
今天就谈谈比特币经济体系与当代法币经济体系的不同之处。

首先,比特币经济体系是一个非通胀体系,而当代法币体系是一个通胀体系,这个逻辑将使得两种经济体系的底层逻辑发生天翻地覆的转变。

1,在通胀体系中存钱是一种受到通胀威胁的风险行为,人们为了财富保值不得不被迫把钱存入银行、基金、股市、债市、房市等非货币领域,从好的一面看促进了这些领域的短期繁荣发展,从坏的一面看,这也造就了大而不能倒的银行金融体系催生了各种各样定期破灭的资产泡沫和体系性的信用隐患。而在比特币世界中,除了持币本身,这个世界上的所有金融行为都将产生显而易见的风险,包括投资国债和存银行吃利息也不例外,因为国家可能还不起债,银行可能会破产,比特币世界将不存在现代央行的最后承担机构,人们对抗风险的主要因素将是比特币储蓄。

2,如果比特币经济体系最终成功上位,由于比特币体系中的货币本身具备了充足的抗通胀能力,其它领域例如房产、债券、股票的资本估值模型都会发生转变,很多资产的金融属性会减弱甚至完全消退,资本定价将远远低于通胀体系的资产定价模型,资本投资泡沫或者房地产泡沫等阶段性金融泡沫现象将逐渐消减并最终消失。

3,人们将不需要养老保险这种公共投资基金,因为一个人年轻时候存的钱,年老时候的消费力并不会减少,因此每个人为自己养老将成为可能,每个人将可以自己决定自己的退休年龄、退休待遇、养老储蓄额度,政府只需要做好扶贫就够了,大部分人将有不依赖于政府的终身财务自主能力。

4,借贷将彻底成为一种风险行为,由于国家没有货币调节能力,不可能经常性的印钱用来降息降准,因此存款方供给和贷款方需求将共同决定利率市场的变化,当经济向好时,利息会因为贷款方需求增加而上涨,当经济恶化时,利息会因为贷款方需求降低而下降,市场会自动完成利息调节工作,而当贷款方大量违约时,老产业也会自动完成产业淘汰,而不会因为政府补贴而苟延残喘,而释放出的市场资源将被新生力量占据,完成体系的效率演进。
Today we will talk about the differences between the bitcoin economic system and the contemporary legal currency economic system.

First of all, the bitcoin economic system is a non-inflationary system, while the contemporary legal currency system is an inflationary system. This logic will make the underlying logic of the two economic systems turn upside down.

1, save money in inflation system is a kind of risk behavior by the threat of inflation, people in order to preserve wealth was forced to put the money in the bank, fund, stock market, bond market, housing, and other areas of the non-monetary, hey promoted the short-term prosperity development of these areas, from the bad side, it also makes a big to fail Banks in the financial system has given rise to various regular an asset bubble burst and the system of credit risk. And in the currency in the world, in addition to cash itself, all of the world’s financial behavior will produce obvious risk, including investment bonds and deposit interest is not exceptional also, countries may because of debts, Banks may be bankruptcy, the currency the world will not exist modern central bank finally bear the institutions, the main factors of people against the risk will be the currency savings.

2, if the currency economic system ultimately successful, because the monetary itself in the currency system had the enough ability to resist inflation, other areas such as real estate, bonds, equity capital valuation model will be changed, a lot of assets of financial attributes will weaken or even completely faded, capital asset pricing model of pricing will be much lower than the inflation system, capital investment bubble or periodic financial bubble phenomenon such as real estate bubble will gradually reduce and eventually disappear.

3, the endowment insurance of people will not need this kind of public investment funds, because a person young time, money in the old time spending power will not reduce, so each pension will be possible to himself, everyone will be able to decide their own retirement age and retirement benefits, pension savings amount, the government only need to do for poverty alleviation is enough, most people will have no dependence on the government’s financial autonomy for life.

4, lending will become a kind of risk behaviors completely, because the country has no currency adjustment ability, could not have regular printing money used to cut down, so the deposit party will decide together lenders demand and supply and the change of the interest rate market, when the economy, interest rates will because lenders demand increases with the rise, when the economy worsens, the interest will decrease because lenders demand decreases, the market will automatically complete the interest adjustment work, when lenders a large number of default, old industry will also automatically industry, and won’t survive because of government subsidies, and release the market resources will be occupied by a new force, the efficiency of the complete system evolution.

hslayj:
其次,比特币世界是一种基于诚实体系的公正权力体系,这与传统的法币甚至金属货币都有着巨大的体系性差异,比特币货币体系将不会像传统货币体系那样依附于暴力机器(也就是国家)而存在,因此比特币真正具备了反向约束暴力机器的能力。

1,在传统世界中,小到强盗行为大到战争行为,都伴随着大量暴力红利带来的行动利润反馈,抢了一家普通人的银子或现金也好,逼迫国家进行战争赔款也好,暴力行为可以非常容易找到成本转嫁方式,这使得暴力本身也成为了一种有产出回报比的生意,而为了稳定的经济发展和人民幸福,所有国家都不得不发展军事力量保证暴力体系的完备性,以此保证不被外敌入侵,这使得国家暴力机器在根本上有了存在的理由。然而,比特币世界的算力经济逻辑决定了,几乎所有人都无法通过暴力来获取财富,即使获取了,也会留下犯罪证据,赃款也有被财务冻结可能,这使得暴力行为的成本被无限放大(被所有人永远记在区块链上),而暴力产出几乎为零,这将使得暴力发起方迅速丧失体系的支持,从而在根本上遏制暴力的出现和蔓延。

2,在传统社会中,国家由于有国家安全需求,因此该需求将会被放置在所有经济发展、人民幸福等所有长期指标之前。当国家拥有了独立的暴力意志后,国家主义和民族主义甚至多数暴政的民粹主义等集体主义思潮将成为社会沙文主义对人本主义的侵犯,而类似纳粹这样的激进暴力势力将更加容易获得国家机器的主导权,从而使得全人类进入互相毁灭的恐惧猜疑链中,而核武器的存在更是加剧了人类文明自我毁灭的可能性。而比特币世界中由于每个人都有独立于国家和政府之外的经济安全保证,大多数人的生存将不会被迫绑在集体主义的车轮上,构成滚雪球式的暴力主义扩散,而由于比特币财富的抗暴力特性和参与者信息对称特性,比特币体系甚至可能从根子上彻底消除暴力主义的基础逻辑。

3,当国家是一切社会活动的发起点时,国家为了更多合理的国家安全感,会试图对很多行业进行控制,例如军工产业、信息产业、能源产业、金融产业等核心产业,这势必造成市场效率向国家控制的妥协,而这种行为会更加加剧大而不能倒的核心节点的产生,当重大危机发生后,国家又不得不花费大量的经济资源去救助这些核心经济节点,防止整个国家的经济整体滑坡,这就为整体连锁型经济危机埋下了隐患,中国各朝各代的灭亡几乎都或多或少的源自于此,要想彻底摆脱这种整体型淘汰的经济厄运,比特币体系中的有限化责任政府将必不可少,只有割掉腐烂的地方,体系才可能长久健康,否则再多的麻药(补贴或贷款)都无法挽救一个遍体鳞伤的体系。
Second, the currency world power system is a system based on honesty and justice, this and the traditional legal tender in even metal currency has a huge difference, the currency monetary system will not like traditional monetary system attached to the machine (that is, countries) violence, so the currency with the reverse constraint violence the ability of the machine.

1, in the traditional world, small to big robber behavior to ACTS of war, is accompanied by a large number of violent dividend action brought by a profit, robbed a ordinary people’s money or cash, or force the country to war reparations, violence can be very easy to find the cost, which makes the violence itself has also become a kind of output returns than business, and in order to stable economic development and people’s happiness, all countries have to develop military power to ensure the completeness of violence system, to ensure not to be a foreign invasion, this makes the state violence machine essentially have a reason to exist. However, the currency of the world to calculate force determines the economic logic, almost everyone can’t acquire wealth through violence, even if obtained, also can leave criminal evidence, money has been financial freeze can, which makes the violence is an infinite cost () is everyone will remember forever in block chain, and violent output is almost zero, this will allow violence sponsors the rapid loss of system support, so as to fundamentally curb the emergence and spread of violence.

  1. In traditional societies, the need for national security is placed before all long-term indicators such as economic development and people’s happiness. When countries have independent after the violence will, nationalism and even majority tyranny of populist nationalism thoughts will be collectivism chauvinism of the encroachment of humanism, and like the Nazi forces of militant violence will be more likely to win the initiative of the state apparatus, so as to make the mankind into mutual destruction of suspicion in the chain of fear, but the existence of nuclear weapons is exacerbated by the possibility of the destruction of human civilization. And COINS in the world because everyone is independent of state and government of economic security, the survival of most people will not be forced to tied to the wheel of collectivism and constitute a snowballing violence spread, and because the currency against violence and participants information symmetry properties of wealth, the currency system may even eliminate violence, from the root the basis of logic.

3, when the country is the launch point of all social activities, more reasonable to national security, and will try to to control many industries, such as military industry, information industry, energy industry, the financial industry, such as core industry, this is bound to cause concessions to state control of the market efficiency, and this kind of behavior will be more aggravate core nodes of big to fail, when after the occurrence of major crisis, countries have to spend a lot of economic resources to rescue these core economic node, to prevent the economy as a whole the overall landslide, it is for whole chain type a hidden under the economic crisis, China’s in every generation the demise of almost all more or less from this, if you want to completely get rid of this whole out of economic doom, the currency system of finite responsibility the government will be essential, only cut off the rotten, system can long-term health, otherwise no amount of anesthetic (subsidies or loan) cannot save a system was black and blue all over.

hslayj:
最后,比特币的权力来源是自下而上的诚实积累型逻辑,这与传统世界的自上而下的集权型逻辑有很大区别。

1,在当代社会,国家具备一切社会活动的最终定义权,政治领袖的思路将直接决定一个体系的最终命运,如邓小平这样的英明领袖可以决定一个十亿级人口规模的地区快速崛起,如希特勒这样的战争狂人也可以决定当初整个欧洲的战争灾难,文明起于圣人之势却也容易毁于魔鬼之手。而比特币世界中,每个人用自己的购买力构建了一个市场体系挑选标准,符合标准的企业家脱颖而出,而企业家在市场战争获胜后,拥有了足够的经济储备后,将拥有了和地方政府的谈判能力,企业家将会让那些更注重经济建设逻辑、更尊重市场逻辑的地方政府在地缘经济与秩序竞争中获胜,企业家会帮助老百姓去要求政府更多的去服务于社会,比特币世界将会渐渐淡化政治家的作用,将会让这个世界更稳定,更少的被政治精英影响。

2,由于政府彻底失去了铸币权、发债权,政府将必须重视所有决策的经济成本维度,价值观社会治理思路必须向成本可控型社会转型,政府的开源和节流都将是关乎政府体系存亡的大事,社会需要的将不是平等、民主、自由等空泛的价值观口号,而是可量化成本的整体社会治理模型,巨婴型政府将不复存在,政府的实际所得将真实的由其治理水平带来的社会秩序安全性、平稳性和经济的可持续性衡量,口号式民主竞选策略将会被长久的可持续信用经营型策略所替代,政府将同时注重富人逻辑和穷人逻辑,因为没有富人逻辑,地区将不会发展,没有穷人逻辑,地区将不会安定,找到其中的可持续平衡点,将是所有政府的任务。

3,在比特币世界中,地缘政治逻辑将逐渐被地缘经济逻辑取代,很多传统上可能需要武力解决的领土纠纷和主权纠纷,也许仅仅是一场土地交易就可以达成,富裕的城市可以向贫穷的城市购买土地,同时完成富裕城市的土地扩张与贫穷城市的财政补贴,交易价格完全可以通过市场博弈完成。而反应在普通人的身上,很多人的居住地可能会慢慢的被富裕城市所覆盖,失败的政府会慢慢被成功的政府所替代,从而完成新兴的优越政治制度的和平扩散与保守落后政治制度的淘汰。
In the end, bitcoin’s power comes from bottom-up, honesty-cumulated logic, which is very different from the top-down, centralised logic of the traditional world.

1, in the contemporary society, all countries have right to the final definition of social activities, the thinking of political leaders will directly decide the ultimate fate of a system, wise leaders such as deng xiaoping can determine a billionaire population scale regional rapid rise, such as Hitler war jangkie can also be decided at the beginning the whole European war disaster, civilization from saint trend are easily destroyed by the hand of the devil. And COINS in the world, everyone with their purchasing power to build a market system selection standard, conform to the standards of entrepreneurs, and entrepreneurs in the victory of the war, the market has enough economic reserves, will have the ability of negotiations and local governments, entrepreneurs will let those who pay more attention to economic construction logic, more respect for the local government in the economic geography of market logic and order competition, entrepreneurs will go to ask the government to help people more to serve the society, the currency world will gradually fade out the role of politicians, will make the world a more stable and less affected by the political elite.

2, because the government completely lost COINS, the right of creditor’s rights, the government will have to attach importance to the economic cost of all decision-making dimension, values and social management ideas to cost control model of social transformation, the government’s open source and throttling survival event will be about the government system, and social needs will not the values of equality, democracy, freedom and vague slogan, but a quantifiable costs overall social governance model, carried out the government would cease to exist, the government’s actual income bring true by its level of management of the safety and steadiness of the social order and economic sustainability, The slogan democratic campaign strategy will be replaced by the long-term sustainable credit operation strategy. The government will pay attention to both the logic of the rich and the logic of the poor, because without the logic of the rich, the region will not develop, and without the logic of the poor, the region will not be stable. It will be the task of all governments to find the sustainable balance.

3, in the world of COINS, geopolitical logic will gradually be replaced by the economic geography of logic, many traditionally may need to force to solve territorial disputes and sovereignty dispute, may be just a land deal can be reached, rich city could purchase land to poor city, at the same time complete rich city urban land expansion and poverty subsidies, market price completely can be done through the market game. Reflecting on ordinary people, the living places of many people may be gradually covered by rich cities, and the failed government will be gradually replaced by the successful government, thus completing the peaceful diffusion of the new superior political system and the elimination of the conservative and backward political system.

hslayj:
比特币世界是一套完整的经济、政治、哲学体系,单独拿出来一个方面与传统体系比较是片面的,从历史角度读懂人类秩序演进的逻辑才能真正体会出比特币世界观对于人类的真正影响,真正读懂人类目前面临问题的底层制度根源,才能明白比特币带来的诚实世界到底意味着什么。人类曾经试图用哲学来降服暴力最后演变成了政治;人类曾经试图用科学工程来降服暴力,最后演变成了热武器;人类曾经试图用科学理论来降服暴力,最后演变成了核武器,今天人类终于有了新的武器——诚实,我相信这才是真正能够降服暴力的最终解决方案。当代人类面临的暴力囚徒困境、政府经济灾难、社会改良陷阱、民粹主义抬头等问题本质都来源于政府形态的僵化导致的世界政治体系的纳什均衡,而要摆脱这套纳什均衡体系,人类以前没有办法,而现在中本聪给人类带来了一套可能的解决办法,这就是BSV体系的伟大之处,BSV就是现代世界的新大陆,而冒险者游戏才刚刚开始。
Currency in the world is a set of complete system of economy, politics, philosophy, single out one aspect is one-sided, compared with traditional system from the perspective of history can understand human evolution logic order truly become a currency world view for human to make a real difference, really understand human faces problems underlying root system, to understand the world currency bring honesty what it means. Man had tried to overcome violence with philosophy and it turned into politics; Man has tried to subdue violence with science and engineering, and turned it into a heat weapon. Human beings have tried to use scientific theories to overcome violence, which eventually turned into nuclear weapons. Today, human beings finally have a new weapon – honesty, which I believe is the ultimate solution to overcome violence. Violence of contemporary human faces the prisoner’s dilemma, the government’s economic disaster, social improvement trap, populist up owing to the rigidity of the nature of problems originate from the government in the world political system of Nash equilibrium, but to get rid of this system of Nash equilibrium, human no way before, and now in the hearing brought a set of possible solutions to the human, this is the greatness, BSV system BSV is the new world of the modern world, and adventurers game has only just begun.

hslayj:
我一直和大家说BSV是一个时代转型级别的机会,但同时BSV项目同样蕴含着巨大的风险,这就好像一个猜大小的游戏,猜中了固然回报巨大,但是同样有猜错导致赔光筹码的风险,因此注重风险管理对于BSV前景同样适用,今天就重点来谈谈BSV的风险点。
I have been with you said BSV is an era of transition level of opportunity, but at the same time the BSV project also contains a huge risk, it is sort of like a guess the size of the game, guess the is huge returns, but also there is the risk of wrong leads to compensate optical chips, so pay attention to risk management for the BSV outlook also apply, is the key to talk about the risk of BSV points today.

hslayj:
首先,BSV面临着不小的生态建设风险,如果在三到五个比特币周期也就是12-20年内,链上生态没有繁荣,挖矿补贴逐渐消失,BSV将很可能面对链枯萎的基础设施资源不足的困境,目前来说这是所有其它链的必然结局,只有BSV有潜力解决这个困境,但是有潜力并不代表一定能解决。

1,BSV目前的体量相对较小,链上生态的所有业态都相对来说比较稚嫩,目前还没有看到找到市场利基的成熟项目,大部分项目还停留在概念试错和模型验证阶段,有稳定客户量的项目很少,有稳定大规模盈利能力并获得资本市场认可的项目除了挖矿产业外还基本没有,如果这种局面继续持续10年,那么比特币的生态机会窗口将会逐渐关闭。

2,目前很多大型的跨国企业和国家都在进行区块链领域的应用尝试,由于有着非常庞大的力量背景支持,因此长期的国家补贴行为在区块链领域会比较常见,这也阻止了很多按照市场逻辑本应该万链归一的项目而逐渐发展出自己的链上生态赔钱赚吆喝,如果BSV不能在3个比特周期内展露出万链归一的领袖气质,那么行业链的万链齐发逻辑仍然会长期占据主流区块链建设的投资逻辑,当行业链生存的比BSV更好时,并且在短期内无法完成趋势逆转时,BSV可能会撑不到万链归一的那一刻就链枯萎。

3,如果短期内BTC的逻辑还没有被市场戳破泡沫,那么BTC的支持者将拥有持续诋毁中本聪甚至搅乱BSV金融市场的能力,如果郁金香基金因为法律判罚原因而不能验证CSW的中本聪身份,BSV的逻辑不管有多么有前途和逻辑自洽,BTC的逻辑不管有多么漏洞百出和谎话连篇,BSV都可能长期受到大额资本的市场操纵,从而挤压链上生态与矿工基础设施生态的生存空间。
First of all, the BSV are faced with the risk of a lot of ecological construction, if within three to five COINS cycle is 12 to 20 years, ecological chain not prosperity, dig subsidies gradually disappear, wither BSV will likely face the chain enough infrastructure resources, and for now this is the inevitable outcome of all the other chain, only the BSV has the potential to solve this dilemma, but has the potential to not representative must be able to solve.

1, BSV current volume is relatively small, ecological chain of all formats are relatively young, there is no see find a market niche mature project, most projects still stays in the concept of trial and error and model verification phase, the amount of projects rarely have stable customers, has a stable mass of profitability and capital market endorsed in addition to dig mineral industry is the basic no project, if the situation continue for 10 years, so the currency of the ecological window of opportunity will gradually close.

2, at present many large multinational companies and countries are try to block chain in the field of application, due to the background support has a large force, so the long-term behavior of state subsidies in the field of chain block is more common, it also prevents a lot of logic should be in accordance with the market chain to a project and gradually develop their own chain USES ecological loss, if the BSV cannot cycle in three bits show a chain to a charisma, the industry chain of chain have long dominated logic will still be the mainstream investment logic block chain construction, when the industry chain to survive better than BSV, And when the trend cannot be reversed in a short period of time, BSV may not be able to support the 10,000 chain at the moment of the chain wither.

3, if BTC logic has not been in the short term market bubble, BTC supporters would have continued to denigrate the chung and even disrupt BSV the ability of financial market, if the tulip funds for legal penalty reason cannot verify CSW in this our identity, the logic of BSV no matter how promising and logic self-consistent, BTC logic no matter how flawed and dishonest, BSV is likely to be regulated by large capital market manipulation, ecological infrastructure and miners squeezes chain of living space.

hslayj:
其次,BSV面临着巨大的政治迫害风险,不管CSW博士或者Nchain团队认知与否或者承认与否,比特币世界的逻辑都对现有世界的政治生态构成直接性的秩序挑战,保守主义、利益集团与传统秩序的守护者在面对这种新秩序时肯定会有或多或少的不适,静观其变可能是比较好的可能,插手控制甚至因控制不成导致的迫害也并非没有可能。

1,如果BSV的执法权被美国垄断,美国完成了对BSV执法权和立法权的全面控制,而美国政府将其作为国家博弈的武器,那么出于国家安全需要,各个国家都有可能分裂出自己国家拥有执法权和立法权的分叉,BSV将很有可能分裂成国家链,例如中国链、欧洲链、日本链等等,解决这种可能性的最好方法是尽早的发展出BSV国际组织法律委员会联盟,完成BSV区块链的政治中立性立法环境,以此来对抗单边主义政治诉求。

2,很多国家出于金融管制需求,在初期很有可能长期禁止BSV生态的发展和使用,这会极大的延缓BSV生态的发展速度,减少BSV生态的市场占有率和利润来源从而加速BSV链死亡进程,这个风险的度过需要BSV链上生态尽可能快速和大规模的展现出产业优势,让管制国家尝到错过行业爆发机会的苦果,这样会尽可能的减少管制国家的数量和管制规模,完成BSV对全领域的渗透。

3,比特币的国际联盟可能面临传统大国的政治或者军事侵犯,因此比特币联盟在创立初期必须得到传统联合国常任理事国级别的国家支持,没有传统大国力量的参与,BSV生态必然是无根之木,只有传统大国才能提供BSV生态需要的国际合法性、政治稳定性、军事安全性和国际信用保证,也只有发展到这一步,比特币才真正具备改变全人类底层文明规则的潜力,在此之前的比特币,都没有脱离风险期。
Second, BSV is facing huge risk of political persecution, whether Dr CSW or Nchain team cognition or not or admit it or not, the currency of the world logic to the existing world political order of ecological constitutes a direct challenge, conservatism, interest group and the traditional order of the guardian in the face of this new order will surely have more or less discomfort, see what could be better, in control of persecution as a result of control isn’t even it is not impossible.

1, if the BSV the executive monopoly by the United States, the United States has completed the full control of the BSV the executive and legislative powers, the us government as a national game of weapons, so for the need of national security, all countries are likely to split out own country has the executive and legislative powers of bifurcate, BSV will likely be divided into national chain, such as China chain chain, chain in Europe, Japan and so on, is the best way to solve this possibility as soon as possible the development of the BSV alliance international law commission, complete the BSV block chain environment, political neutrality legislation against unilateralism and political demands.

2, many countries out of financial regulation requirements, in the early likely long-term ban BSV ecological development and use, it will greatly delay the BSV ecological development speed, reduce the BSV ecological sources of market share and profit increasing the BSV chain death process, the risk through ecological need BSV chain as quickly as possible and large-scale show industrial advantage, let miss outbreak of industry control national taste bitter, it would be as much as possible to reduce the amount of the country and controls the size of the complete BSV penetration of all areas.

3, the currency of the international union for the may face the traditional powers of political or military invasion, so the currency union at the beginning of the creation must be traditional permanent member of the United Nations security council level of state support, without the participation of great power, traditional BSV ecology must be no root wood, only traditional powers can offer BSV ecological needs of international legitimacy, political stability, military security and credit guarantee, also only to this step, the currency truly have the potential to change the rules of the underlying all mankind civilization, and before the COINS, all have no from risk.

hslayj:
了解BSV逻辑的最大好处并不是知道BSV一定会赢,而是知道区块链的唯一正确打开方式就是BSV,当补贴消失后,人们不可能靠一秒钟个位数的转账能力带来的利润(BTC)来维持一个国际化的金融体系的基础设施,人们也不可能靠每一条数据都要切换一条链(行业链)来完成区块链领域的生态建设,所有币圈和链圈的逻辑在背离中本聪愿景后,要么就是谎话连篇的资金盘,要么就是昙花一现的假应用。然而,即使是BSV本身,也仍然面临着多变的外部环境和生态不确定性,对于年岁大的投资者来说一定要注意风险,对于年轻人来说,这绝对是一个非常好的朝阳行业,因为中本聪的思想已经到了这个世界上,BSV即使真的枯萎了,相信比特币精神不会枯萎,这条路径很可能成为本世纪的最佳产业发展路径,任何在此基础上的努力,都不会白费。
Understand the best advantage of BSV logic is not know BSV will win, but know that the only open the right way to block chain is BSV, when subsidies to disappear, the people could not rely on a second single ability to transfer profits (BTC) to maintain an international financial system infrastructure, people could not rely on every piece of data is to switch to a chain, industry chain to complete block chain of ecological construction, and chain all currency circle logic in a departure from the astute vision, or dishonest money tray, or it’s a flash in the pan false application. Even BSV itself, however, is still facing the changing external environment and the ecological uncertainty, for the older investors must pay attention to the risk, for young people, it is definitely a very good chaoyang industry, because of the power of thought has come to this world, BSV even withered, really believe the currency spirit will not wither, this path is likely to become the best of this century industry development path, any effort on the basis of this, will not be in vain.

hslayj:
今天谈一谈如果比特币世界成为现实,那么比特币世界在解决了很多传统社会问题后,可能会出现的新社会难题,这些难题可能是现在社会已经有的,比如贫富分化难题,也有可能是当代世界没有的难题,比如平权主义终结带来的一系列社会失衡问题,处理不好这些社会难题,比特币世界仍然可能退化甚至瓦解。
Discuss if the currency world today to become a reality, so the currency in the world after solve the problem of a lot of traditional society, new social problems may arise, these problems may be now society has some, such as the gap between rich and poor, it is possible that in the modern world without problems, such as affirmative doctrine to end, with a series of social imbalances, deal with these social problems, the currency world may still be degraded or even collapse.

hslayj:
首先,贫富分化问题仍将长期存在,比特币世界本质上是一种资本主义市场经济为底层逻辑的社会形态,在市场经济中,人们始终处于对于财富的竞争状态中,人们的财富一般来说正比于个人被认可能力的时间次方,这也意味着哪怕极其微小的个人被认可能力差异,在足够时间长的积累下,也会形成巨大的财富差异从而形成财富马太效应。而信息化世界对个人能力的赋能是非常巨大的,善于运用信息社会资源的人能力将远超于不擅长的人,而这种个人能力差异的扩大,会更加增加财富的马太效应,使得强者愈强、弱者愈弱,要解决这个问题可能需要以下几个方面的努力:

1,要平衡这种贫富差异,税收逻辑尤其重要,在社会治理层面向富人多收税来补贴穷人这个方法底层逻辑是没问题的,富人用自己的一部分财富买到了社会认同感和有利于自己长期致富的安全社会环境,穷人能够有面包不至于铤而走险,这本质上是双赢的,然而基于收入模式或财产掠夺模式的富人税收,会使得富人缺乏财富安全感,而这也无形中撇开了执行人也就是政府的责任,功能性税收是政府必须重点依赖的税收来源,而富人交税本质上就变成了富人向政府购买社会功能支付的费用,如果政府不能很好的提供社会功能(社会安全、经济环境、社会保障),那么自然收的税就会少,如果政府能够提供很好的社会功能,就能收更多的税,这将会使得政府的多维度目标体系逐渐向单维度目标体系过度,政府的目标将是提供更好的社会功能,让富人能够有更稳定的社会秩序用来创造更多财富的环境、穷人有更稳定的财富补贴应付窘迫的财务状况,实现社会功能层面的贫富共赢局面。

2,尽可能的通过遗产税方式,来完成财富的断代化,对个人财富的保护能够促进财富创造的社会环境,对传承财富的过度保护则会造成巨大的社会鸿沟,如果没有全球统一的遗产税执行标准,富人能够通过迁徙居住地或者隐藏财富来避开代际传承损失,那么可以想象这个世界将逐渐豪族化,而豪族后裔与平民后裔肯定会出现能力倒挂现象,如果平民后裔无法在经济维度超越豪族后裔(因为在非通胀社会中豪族后裔只要不花钱就具备了财富保障能力),那么用财富剥削劳动的社会现象将大范围出现,而有着富可敌国财富的猪(缺乏能力的豪族后裔)肯定也是斗不过手无寸铁的人(具备能力的平民后裔)的,暴力主义思潮肯定会卷土重来。因此尽可能高(能够让富人子嗣有足够的生存安全感,但又不至于让他们一辈子只能困守财富围城中走下坡路)的遗产税的普世化逻辑,既是对富人安全的保护也是对穷人完成阶层跃迁的保障,这本质也是双赢的。

3,社会化的私人慈善逻辑,真正有效率的社会扶贫模式很多时候来自于点对点的私人慈善,让富人用慈善财富换取社会名望和社会认同应该是激励慈善事业的最好社会基石,给富人更多的财富隐私感、财富安全感和财富正当性比道德要求更有利于激励私人慈善逻辑,法律只能保证程序正义并不能确保结果正义,而广泛的温情脉脉的人际关系才是社会发展壮大的最大原动力,用法律保证社会的底线,用慈善温暖社会的纽带,将是解决贫富分化问题的最好方案。
First of all, the gap between rich and poor problem will still exist for a long time, the currency of the world is essentially a capitalist market economy as the underlying logic of the social form, in a market economy, people are always in a state of competition for the wealth, the wealth of the people in general is proportional to personal recognition ability of the power of time, this also means that even tiny individual recognition ability difference, accumulated in long enough time, will be a huge wealth difference to form the Matthew effect. And the world of information can be assigned to individual ability is very big, is good at using the information of social resources ability will far beyond people who do not good at, and the difference of individual ability to expand, will increase more wealth of Matthew effect, makes the strong stronger and the weak weaker, to solve this problem may need the following efforts:

1, to balance the differences between the rich and the poor, taxes logic is particularly important, in the aspect of social governance over the rich to collect taxes to subsidize the poor this method the underlying logic is no problem, the rich use part of their wealth to buy the social identity and is conducive to their long-term social environment, the safety of the rich to the poor to have bread not desperate, it is essentially a win-win, but the rich tax based on the pattern of income model or property seizures, makes the rich sense of security, lack of wealth and it virtually regardless of the person subjected to execution is the responsibility of the government, functional tax is government must mainly depend on tax source, And pay tax the rich nature becomes a rich man pay the fee to the government to buy social function, if the government is not very good with social function, social security, economic environment, social security), the nature of the tax would be less, if the government can provide good social function, can more tax, this will make the government system of multidimensional goal gradually to the single dimension target system, the government’s goal is to provide better social function, let the rich can have a more stable social order to create more wealth of the environment, the poor have more stable subsidies to cope with the financial position of the distress, Achieve a social function level of the rich and poor win-win situation.

2, as far as possible by way of inheritance tax, to complete the date of wealth, the protection of personal wealth can promote the wealth created by the social environment, excessive protection of inherited wealth can cause huge social gap, if there is no unified global tax standards, the rich can through migration settlement or hidden wealth to avoid loss between generations, so you can imagine this the world will gradually what, and what seed and seed of civilians will appear power inversion phenomenon, If civilians seed in the economic dimension beyond what seed (because in inflation in the society what seed wealth safeguard ability as long as he doesn’t spend money), then with a wealth of exploiting labor will appear a wide range of social phenomenon, and has the rich wealth of pig, the descendants of the lack of ability to what, is surely the bucket but unarmed people (seed) ability of civilians, violence will certainly be making a comeback. So the universal logic of an inheritance tax that is as high as possible (to give the rich enough security to keep their children alive but not to keep them stuck in the grip of a lifetime of wealth) is both a safeguard for the security of the rich and a guarantee for the transition of the poor, which is a win-win.

3, the socialization of private charitable logic, really efficient social poverty alleviation model many times from point-to-point private charity, let the rich use charitable wealth in exchange for social fame and social identity should be motivating the best social charity foundation, more wealth to the rich sense of privacy, the wealth of security and reasonable than moral requirements more conducive to encourage private charity logic, law can only ensure justice, procedural justice and cannot ensure the results and extensive affectionate relationship is the biggest driving force of the development of society, with legal guarantee the bottom line of the society, with charitable warm social ties, Would be the best solution to the gap between rich and poor.

hslayj:
其次,政府能力将受到极大限制,政府由于失去了永续债赤字能力和扩张货币能力,只能通过政府税收来维持政府功能,而税收领域还面临着巨大的地缘经济竞争压力,因此政府的各种职权范围会大幅度缩窄,很多传统领域需要政府参与的角色,可能都会被职能化出来交给竞争企业来做,政府能力萎缩会给各种传统政府业务带来各种不同的挑战。

1,比特币世界的失业率将可能大幅度上升,市场决定论将使得政府缺乏调节失业率的能力,政府将不会有大量资源来通过基础设施投资来拉动就业率上升,每一份职位都意味着一份市场需求,挖坑后填坑的政府导向经济行为将在成本上不被允许,信息化时代的自动化和人工智能化产业会极大的推动无人化和少人化商业普及,普通人将无法和机器、人工智能算法来争夺工作岗位,重复性机械化的劳动岗位可能会彻底消失。容忍高失业率带来的社会秩序冲击可能是考验比特币时代政府的一个重要指标。胶囊化贫民窟满足穷人的生存需求与游戏化扶贫满足穷人的精神需求都将可能成为应对这种社会秩序转变的过度手段,更好的补偿手段仍然需要未来人的不断尝试。一个血淋林的事实就是,如果社会需要发展,就必定有落后者和先进者,让落后者与先进者拥有绝对平等是一个根本不可能的事情,任何社会化的绝对平等承诺,最后都会变成各种政治家上位的要么是因为愚蠢要么是刻意欺骗的政治谎言。

2,比特币世界的供给侧能力将会大幅度削弱,很多产业会面临萎缩。由于比特币本身的抗通胀特性,人们将会更多的持币来保护财产,因此股市泡沫、债市泡沫和房市泡沫都将很难出现,资产价格将会大幅度降低,股价、房价将会相对现代社会更低,而货币的时间信用使得人们会更多的储存财富应对未来的不确定性,而不会像通胀世界那样提前消费,那么消费享乐主义的潮流会减退,勤俭节约的消费潮流会兴起,这会使很多消费产业的产业链受到巨大影响。高消费低安全是通胀经济下的产物,相反低消费高信用是非通胀经济下的潮流。我们可以把央行看做是一个现代商场的促销员,他时时刻刻都想掏干每一个人身上的每一个铜板,至于财富的系统安全性,这其实它并不负责,因为其他央行促销员也是这么干的,凯恩斯主义是一种国家主义对人本主义的侵犯,在凯恩斯的经济模式下有太多太多的国进民退现象,比特币世界会转变这种潮流,而代价可能就是初期的高破产率和过度产能的产业萎缩现象。

3,绝对的平权主义会慢慢退出历史舞台,人们会逐渐意识到绝对的权力平等将是既没有效率也没有可执行力的观念,“普世善良和绝对平等”将是人性的社会制度化中最后一个需要被广泛克服的缺点,取而代之的概念应该是平权的社会成本问题,如果上帝足够善良没有用进化剪刀淘汰掉绝大部分个体,那么人就不会进化出智慧与合作精神,个体的善良无疑是非常有利于群体生存的基因表现,而体系化的善良最后就会演变成没有效率的大锅饭和没有原则的资源浪费。
Second, the government ability will be greatly restricted, the government deficit due to lost the sustainable debt and monetary expansion ability, can only through the government tax revenue to maintain the government function, but also faces enormous tax area geo-economic competition pressure, so various greatly narrowed the scope of their functions and powers of the government, many traditional areas need to participate in the role of the government, are likely to be a functional up to competitive enterprise, government capacity contraction will bring all sorts of traditional government business a variety of challenges.

1, the currency of the world, the unemployment rate could rise sharply market determinism would make the government lack of ability to adjust the unemployment, the government will not have a lot of resources to pull the rise in employment through investment in infrastructure, each job means a market demand, after digging holes filling holes of government oriented economic behavior will not be allowed on the cost, and automation of information age and artificial intelligent industry will greatly promote the unmanned and humanization business less popular, ordinary people will not be able to and machines, artificial intelligence algorithm to compete for jobs, the mechanization of repetitive labor jobs may disappear completely. Tolerating the social order shock of high unemployment could be an important test for governments in the bitcoin era. Capsule slum to meet the survival needs of the poor and game poverty alleviation to meet the spiritual needs of the poor will probably become an excessive means to cope with the change of social order, better means of compensation still need the future people to continue to try. A blood rain forest the truth is, if the need of society development, it must be laggards and first mover, and let the laggards and first mover has absolute equality is an impossible thing, any absolute equality of social commitment, finally will become various politicians upper or because of a stupid either deliberately deceive political lies.

  1. The supply side capacity of the bitcoin world will be greatly weakened and many industries will face contraction. Due to the inflation of the currency itself characteristic, people will have more cash to protect property, so a stock market bubble, the bond market bubble and the bubble will be hard to appear, asset prices will slash, stock prices, house prices will be relatively lower in modern society, and the currency credit made people will cope with the uncertainty of the future, more stored wealth rather than inflation world consumption in advance, the trend of consumption hedonism would decline, thrifty consumption trend will rise, it makes a lot of industry chain is affected by the huge consumer industries. High consumption and low security are the product of inflation economy, on the contrary, low consumption and high credit are the trend of non-inflation economy. We can put the People’s Bank of China as a modern shopping mall promoters, he all the time want to pay each person every coin, as to the system security of wealth, it is not responsible for it, because other central Banks also do promoters, Keynesian is a kind of nationalism to the encroachment of humanism, there are too many in Keynes’s economic mode of guo jin min tui phenomenon, the currency will change this world trend, and the price may be high failure rate and excessive production capacity, industry in the early shrinkage phenomenon.

3, absolutely affirmative doctrine will gradually quit the historical stage, people gradually realize that absolute power equality will be neither efficient nor can the concept of executive force, “universal goodness and absolute equality” will be the last of the human social institutionalization needed widely to overcome the shortcomings, replaced by the concept of social cost issues should be affirmative, if god enough kind to use evolution scissors out most of the individuals, so people would not have evolved a wisdom and the spirit of cooperation, the individual kindness is very beneficial to the survival of the gene expression, And systematic kindness will eventually evolve into an inefficient big pot and a waste of resources without principle.

hslayj:
最后,在摆脱了传统上暴力猜疑链的比特币世界中,由于每个算力国家都拥有国际事务表决的一票否决权,以此来保证整个世界的所有人民财富安全不被政治议题和暴力行为破坏,联合国仍然可能因为文化差异、种族差异、制度差异而产生新的博弈纳什均衡。

1,人种差异和文化差异将不会自动弥合,文化对抗仍然可能长期存在,人类共同体的思想统一可能会耗时漫长,围绕着移民权问题和种族问题的争论仍然可以长期影响人类共同体的稳定,而内部博弈一旦超过一定边界,很可能引起一定的暴力冲突和对抗。这就要求制度本身的改革既要有好的方向也要有足够的平稳度,激进主义路线并不可取,尽可能的放稳步伐比大干快上更重要。

2,如果今后比特币协议出现较大的漏洞,例如算法升级、最小单位satoshi变更成更小单位、重大人类灾难导致的制度性改革,而更改方向的争议如果造成不同利益集团的碰撞,并且最后无法达成统一,那么这种规则型博弈将会撕裂联合国结构,甚至造成全球范围内的经济撕裂问题,这种可能性并不一定会出现,但是仍然是有可能的,而要解决这种可能性问题,就需要更加互信的人类共同体文化。

3,比特币世界中,整个世界经济体的经济增长放缓甚至停滞问题可能出现。在通胀体系中,政府可以通过增发货币或者增加货币乘数的方式来增加货币规模,而货币规模的增长将推动资产价格的上升,资产价格上涨在推动投资规模和产业规模扩张,从而形成在GDP数字上非常梦幻的长期指数型增长,然而这种印出来的GDP只具备更好的感官刺激,并不具备长久可持续的经济潜力,因此重新回归诚实货币体系后,人类将不得不面临一份凄惨的GDP答卷,大多数地区零增长和负增长将成为常态,比特币世界将会迅速的淘汰落后产能和低效率产业,经济增长最终将以比特币购买力的增长体现出来,真正做到经济增长与人民财富增长的同步性,而代价就是,人们必须面临更残酷的经济现实,而不是被泡沫欺骗的幻觉中。
Finally, in the chain of violence suspicion on cast off a tradition of the currency in the world, because each work force countries have veto vote on international affairs, in order to ensure the safety of the whole world all of the people’s wealth is not destroyed by political issues and violence, the United Nations may still because of cultural difference, racial difference, system differences and produce new game Nash equilibrium.

1, racial and cultural differences will not automatically close, cultural confrontation could still exist for a long time, the ideas of the community of human unity may take a long, around the immigration rights and racial debate still can affect the stability of the human community for a long time, and the internal game once above a certain boundary, is likely to cause a certain number of violence and confrontation. This requires the reform of the system itself to have both a good direction and a sufficient degree of smoothness. The path of radicalism is not desirable, and it is more important to be as steady as possible rather than as fast as possible.

2, if the future currency agreement appear larger holes, such as upgrading, minimum units satoshi changed into smaller units, a major human disaster caused by institutional reform, and changing the direction if caused by collision of different interest groups, and finally can’t agree, the rules of the game will tear the structure, and even global economic rent problem, this possibility does not necessarily occur, but it is still possible, and possibility to solve this problem, you need more human community culture of mutual trust.

  1. In the bitcoin world, the economic growth of the whole world economy may slow down or even stagnate. In inflation system, it can create or increase the money multiplier to increase the money scale, the scale of monetary growth would promote the rise of asset prices, rising asset prices in promoting the investment scale and industrial scale expansion, thus forming on the GDP Numbers very dreamy exponential growth for a long time, but the printed GDP only have better sensory stimulation, do not have long-term sustainable economic potential, so after the return of honesty monetary system, the human will have to face a dismal GDP questionnaire, most of zero growth and negative growth will become the norm, The bitcoin world will quickly eliminate backward production capacity and inefficient industries, and the economic growth will finally be reflected by the growth of bitcoin’s purchasing power, so as to truly achieve the synchronism of economic growth and the growth of people’s wealth, and the price is that people must face a more brutal economic reality, rather than the illusion of being cheated by the bubble.

hslayj:
比特币世界在解决了传统世界的暴力问题后,却带来了一系列的社会发展新难题,这些难题都不是一成不变的,把这些问题提前想到比遇到问题了以后再措手不及更加重要,这也是交给未来世界的新答卷,不过我仍然相信即使有些问题在我们这个时代无法解决,可能在未来会被新世界的人类解决,解决新世界带来的新问题也是交给未来人们的新机遇,这些问题的答案就交给未来的人寻找吧。
COINS in the world after solved the problem of the traditional world violence, brought a series of new social development, these problems are not immutable, advance the these problems thought of a problem than the unprepared later is more important, it is also to the new paper for the future of the world, but I still believe that even if can’t solve some problems in our times, can be resolved in the future will be a new world of human, solve the new problems are caused by the new world is a new opportunity to the people in the future, the answers to these questions is to people looking for the future.

hslayj:
体系化的观点这些天基本都讲完了,明天就没有了,对于这些观点有任何疑问和不解或者指正都可以提出来讨论,这些东西我从研究几年前BTC的时候就开始了,一直都有在记思考笔记,但是BTC的问题有很多,所以很多东西没有想明白,去年接触BSV以后,很多观点才算捋顺了,这些观点算是这几年观点的一个系统性阐述,这几个月的交流沟通也是在找这些观点的立足点和切入视角,供大家参考,不一定对。
Systematic point of view mostly finished these days, there is no tomorrow, for these views have any question and puzzled or correct can be up for discussion, these things when I was a few years ago from research BTC began, have been in thinking notes, but there are a lot of BTC, so a lot of things didn’t want to know, contact BSV after last year, a lot of views is sequence, these views is a systemic view of over the years, this a few months of communication is also looking for a foothold and cut into the perspective of these views, for your reference, not necessarily right.

hslayj:
http://recreating.org/economics
感谢大家的支持,这个是整理好的聊天群建立以来的记录,大家都可以免费翻阅,至于出书的事情现在先不着急,毕竟还有蛮大的政治风险在里面,等到比特币有了一定的法律地位以后,我觉得再发表比较好。2013年接触比特币概念的时候,当时觉得他会引发通缩灾难,所以没去碰它,2015年把货币通缩逻辑的一些相关史料查找了一遍,发现现有对通缩经济危机的解释都很牵强,所以自己找到了一个视角,也就是通缩危机是因为货币单位不足,解决了这个思考障碍才开始了比特币世界的建模构建,但是几年下来一直都没有想通比特币与法律体系的关系,直到接触到BSV以后,觉得比特币世界的关键节点都想通了,其实中间经历了很长时间的慢思考和理论印证过程,要从根子上推翻一套成熟的理论体系(凯恩斯主义)还是不容易的,所以这个理论也只是一次尝试,任何没有经过现实实践检验的东西都还是需要观察和打磨的。
http://recreating.org/economics
Thank you for your support. This is the record of the organized chat group since it was established, and everyone can read it for free. As for the publishing of the book, there is no hurry now. Contact 2013 COINS of the concept of time, felt he could cause deflation of disaster, so didn’t go to touch it, in 2015 the currency deflation logic of some related historical data to find again, found that the existing explanation of deflation and economic crisis is very far-fetched, so he had to find a point of view, namely deflation crisis because of lack of currency unit, solved the thinking obstacles to the modeling of the currency world building, but a few years down has not figured out the relationship between the currency and the legal system, until after the access to the BSV, feel that the world of the currency of key nodes are figured out, In fact, after a long period of slow thinking and theoretical verification, it is still not easy to overthrow a set of mature theoretical system (keynesianism) from the root, so this theory is just an attempt, anything that has not been tested by practical practice still needs to be observed and polished.

next chapter : Recreating Economics based on Bitcoin 8 : 万链归一

CONTENTS (目录) #

比特币经济学 : 首页
比特币经济学 1 : 开讲
比特币经济学 2 : 法律
比特币经济学 3 : CSW
比特币经济学 4 : 法币崩溃
比特币经济学 5 : 核心概念定调
比特币经济学 6 : 经济危机 HOT !!!
比特币经济学 7 : 路径 HOT !!!
比特币经济学 8 : 万链归一
比特币经济学 9 : 产业区块链
比特币经济学 10 : 去中心化
比特币经济学 11 : 代际剥削
比特币经济学 12 : 族群矛盾
READ MORE (更多文章)……

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