January 6, 2020

比特币经济学 6 : 经济危机

比特币经济学：基于BitcoinSV的全新视角来重新构想世界经济格局 #

Recreating Economics based on Bitcoin : Reimagining the world economic landscape based on a new perspective of BitcoinSV #

CONTENTS (目录) #

Conversation : 2020.4.6~4.10 #

刘子震:
现在的bsv感觉就像赵氏孤儿，有纯正的血统，有不可限量的前途，但仍处于随时被碾死的处境，而且还是婴儿期，我们这些bsv崇拜者，就像托孤大臣，日日操心，夜夜担惊，就想把他抚养成人，登基称皇
Now BSV feels like an orphan of zhao family, with pure blood and unlimited prospects, but still in the situation of being crushed to death at any time, and is still in its infancy, we fans of BSV, like a minister in charge of gu, day by day worry, night by night fear, want to bring him up, the throne

邱少贤:
哈哈哈，说到这个，我以前写过一篇
Hahaha, speaking of which, I wrote one before

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邱少贤:
曹丕为了巩固自己地位不惜加害曹植，本质上还是希望自己能够占有足够的资源，但要成就一番伟业，光靠耍那些小聪明是远远不够的。比特币 SHA256 矿机挖矿所消耗电力的是资源，Metanet 上不断积累的信息亦是资源。如今，一方面 BSV 内修贤德不断提升以容纳万物，另一方面中本聪初心不改坚持不懈欲以正其名义，萝卜与大棒双管齐下，距离 BTC 这个庞氏骗局泡沫破灭还有多久呢？让我们拭目以待。
In order to consolidate his position, cao PI wanted to have enough resources, but it was not enough for him to achieve great things. The power consumed by mining by the bitcoin SHA256 miner is a resource, as is the information accumulated on Metanet. How long will it be before the bubble of the BTC ponzi scheme bursts? Let’s wait and see.

邱少贤:
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hslayj:
我们可以把这个群或者骷髅群当作BSV世界的黄埔军校，目前几个学习群可能官方管的过来，以后几千个甚至几万个学习群的话，官方不一定管的过来，那时候就需要早期的BSVer接下布道的任务，为学习群的新鲜血液讲透BSV体系的逻辑，做到每个问题都有针对性的解答，而有建设性的观点和逻辑性的问题，都可以通过这个群或者骷髅群进行深入与广泛的讨论，从各个角度丰富比特币理论，那个时候官方有抓手，早期BSVer有渠道，新鲜BSVer有老师，这才是一个很好的共赢和共同成长社区应该有的样子，而不是像BTC那样整天谈涨跌，把新人当韭菜，BSV来到这个世界上有其天然的历史使命，为全人类造福才是BSVer的终极目标。
We can see it as a group or skeleton of BSV whampoa military academy in the world, currently studying group could officially tube, several thousands or even tens of thousands of study group, after the official may not tube, then you need to early BSVer accepted the task of a sermon, for learning group of fresh blood, through BSV system logic, achieve targeted to solve every problem, and constructive opinions and the logical problem, can through the group or skeletons of an in-depth and extensive discussions, enriched the currency theory from different perspectives, at that time the official has the gripper, early BSVer channel, Fresh BSVer has teachers, which is what a good win-win and common growth community should look like, instead of talking about the ups and downs like BTC, new people as leeks, BSV came to the world has its natural historical mission, for the benefit of all mankind is the ultimate goal of BSVer.

hslayj:
今天讨论一下比特币体系对经济危机的影响可能性，先说结论，后面会一条一条展开，我认为比特币可能会彻底解决通缩型经济危机、通胀型经济危机、全局连锁型系统性经济危机，唯一解决不了的经济危机类型是局部连锁型经济危机。
Today to discuss the possibility of the economic crisis, the currency system said the conclusion first, later a a, I think that the currency may be completely solve deflationary economic crisis, inflation, economic crisis, the global chain of systemic economic crisis, the only cannot solve the economic crisis type is a local chain type economic crisis.

hslayj:
首先，是通缩型经济危机，典型的发生案例是秦灭六国以后的社会经济危机直接导致了秦帝国的灭亡和上个世纪二战前的大萧条直接导致了军国主义的崛起，通缩型经济危机一般是金属货币体系中，交易单位不够引起的底层经济交易小额交易无法发生导致的经济危机，秦国统一后由于统一推行了秦国铸造货币，废除了原有战国时期的诸国货币，所以导致市场上的货币不够用，直接导致了底层劳动人民无货币可用，严重影响了经济的底层运作。

以黄金、白银为例，中国古代一般用“两”为交易单位，西方一般用“金盎司”为交易单位，这是因为这种交易单位可以从体积和重量上在人体的肉体感觉下防伪，更小的交易单位可能就不能被身体的敏感度感知了，然而目前的全球黄金储备大概在50亿多一些盎司，白银储备大概在不到500亿盎司，放到现在数以十万亿美金的世界交易中，一个交易单位的价值在2000美金以下的产品是没有办法通过正常的金属货币交易单位来完成的，而正常的经济活动中，几乎90%以上的交易行为都属于小额交易行为，这种货币单位短缺的情况，直接造成了秦帝国的覆灭和上个世纪大萧条的诞生，所以我的判断是通缩性经济危机的起因是因为金属货币交易单位的不足导致的，并不是货币价值保值导致的，而比特币的最小单位satoshi总共有2100万亿个，这将远远超过现有的法币交易单位和金属货币交易单位，因此比特币不会出现交易单位不足的情况，也就不会导致通缩型经济危机的产生，这是凯恩斯学派给比特币戴的帽子，但是比特币不应该去背通缩经济危机的锅，这口锅还是给金属货币比较好。
First, deflation is the economic crisis, the occurrence of a typical case is the qin destroy the social and economic crisis after the six countries directly lead to the collapse of the qin empire and in the last century before the second world war of the great depression directly led to the rise of militarism, deflation in the economic crisis is usually metal currency system, trading unit caused enough underlying economic transactions small cannot lead to economic crisis, because after qin unified qin casting have been introduced in unified currency, the abolition of the original states of the warring states period currency, currency, so lead to market led directly to the underlying working people without money, seriously affect the operation of the bottom layer of the economy.

In gold, silver, for example, “two” is commonly used in ancient China for trading, “an ounce of gold” is commonly used in western for trading, this is because the trading unit can feel from the volume and weight in the human body flesh of anti-counterfeiting, smaller units may be lost for the sensitivity of the body perception, however the current global gold reserves in about 5 billion ounces more, and probably in less than 50 billion ounces of silver reserves, in the now hundreds of 10 trillion dollars of world trade, a trading unit of under $2000 worth of products is that there is no way through normal metal currency trading unit to complete, And normal economic activity, almost more than 90% of the trading behavior belongs to small trading behavior, the shortage of the currency unit, directly caused the fall of the qin empire and the birth of the great depression of the last century, so my judgment is the cause of the deflationary economic crisis caused by inadequate because of metal currency trading unit, not a monetary value preservation, and the smallest units of currency satoshi has a total of 2.1 quadrillion, that will be much more than the existing legal tender units and metal currency trading unit, so the currency will not appear shortage of units, This would not lead to a deflationary economic crisis, which is the Keynesian hat for bitcoin, but bitcoin should not be blamed for the deflationary economic crisis, which is better given to metal currency.

hslayj:
其次，是通胀型经济危机，典型的发生案例是德国二战前的马克恶性通胀和中国民国的金元券恶性通胀，这直接导致了德国引爆二战以及民国政府的垮台退守台湾，甚至在如今的委内瑞拉、津巴布韦地区，仍然可以看到类似的经济危机问题，通胀型经济危机可以说是与法币体系相生相伴的。

当政府接管了货币体系后，政府会逐渐开始依赖印钞机来填充政府财政，当这种依赖成瘾后，政府将无法戒除对印钞机的依赖，而不断加码的印钞行为会直接导致全社会的货币信任体系崩溃，人们会寻找其它东西来对抗通胀，如果通胀水平较低，人们会通过金属货币来对抗通胀，如果通胀水平一般，人们会通过房产投资来对抗通胀，如果通胀水平较高，人们甚至会用生活必需品例如粮油来对抗通胀。

当货币体系无法完成储值功能时，就会有大量寻求对抗通胀的热钱到处寻求出路，这部分热钱跑到哪里，哪里就出现了泡沫，跑到了股市就催生了股市泡沫、跑到了房市就催生了房地产泡沫、跑到了债市就催生了债务泡沫，所以通胀体系下的经济危机，通常呈现出周期性特点，每一次泡沫的破灭，都是热钱从一个泡沫领域的逃走又制造新泡沫的过程。

通胀型泡沫不仅有周期性特点，还有很大的不可逆转特点会造成最终的整个信用体系崩溃，因为通胀水平高于货币利息水平以后，举债将不是风险行为，而是盈利行为，当所有人都开始基于举债利润而全民举债的时候，债务水平会以利息水平为指数发生指数级水平上升，而降息甚至负利率水平的管制行为将让这个体系的利益驱动力被破坏，最后造成直接的信用体系崩溃。

而对于比特币来说，由于不能人为的调整利息水平与通胀水平，加上本来就是一个恒定存量体系，比特币经济世界将根本不会发生通胀型经济危机。
Second, inflation is the economic crisis, the occurrence of a typical case is before the second world war, Germany mark hyperinflation and the republic of China’s millions of stamps of hyperinflation, this led directly to the German set off world war ii and the downfall of the government of the republic of China mainland, even in venezuela, Zimbabwe, can still see the similar economic crisis, inflation type economic crisis can be said to be associated with fiat money system.

After the government took control of the monetary system, the government will gradually begin to rely on the printing press to populate the government finance, when this kind of addiction, the government will not be able to kick the dependence on the printing press, and kept increasing banknote printing behavior will directly lead to the currency of the whole society trust system collapse, people will find other things to fight inflation, if inflation is low, people will through the metal currency to fight inflation, if inflation in general, people will through the real estate investment against inflation, if inflation is high, people will even use daily necessities such as grain and oil to fight inflation.

When monetary system was unable to complete store value function, there will be a lot of seeking to combat inflation in hot money everywhere to seek a way out, this part of the hot money ran to where, where there is a bubble, ran to the stock market has given rise to a stock market bubble, and ran to the housing market has given rise to a real estate bubble, and ran to the bond market has led to the debt bubble, so the economic crisis of the inflation system, usually present a cyclical, every bubble burst, is hot money and ran away from a bubble in the field of manufacturing process of a new bubble.

Inflationary bubble has periodic characteristics not only, still have a lot of irreversible characteristics can lead to the final collapse of the whole credit system, because inflation above the level of the currency interest, debt will not risk behavior, but the profit behavior, when everyone started to profit based on debt and national debt, debt levels will happen to interest level for the index index level rise, and cut interest rates even negative level control behavior will make the system was damaged the interests of the driving force and finally a direct credit system collapse.

As for bitcoin, since it cannot artificially adjust the interest level and inflation level, and it is already a constant stock system, there will be no inflationary economic crisis in the bitcoin economic world.

hslayj:
最后，所谓的连锁型经济危机，简单点说就是葫芦娃救爷爷或者说大而不能倒，当中心化系统中出现某些节点对整个体系有决定性作用后，那么这个节点出问题，整个体系就不得不冒巨大的风险去拯救该节点，甚至最后让该节点成为了整个体系的癌症也不能被放弃，持续损害体系的健康。典型案例就是很多王朝的覆灭型经济危机、计划经济崩溃型危机和次贷危机的时候美国用国家财政拯救华尔街，而中国甚至得用国内的量化宽松来拯救美国。

在传统的经济活动中，有些中心是无法绕过去的，比如中央政府、中央银行以及比较重要的大型国家级企业，所以这些地方出问题的时候，人们即使认识到了该节点有问题，也不能放任不管，就好像一个人不能容忍自己的心脏和大脑出问题一样，现有经济体系也同样不能容忍重点区域出问题。然而问题是，一旦不允许淘汰，体制癌症并不会自动消失，国家当然可以通过国有化的方式把所有问题揽到身上，但这个时候国家本身就变成了问题根源，国家在体制癌症上越陷越深，累赘越来越多，最后体系就会彻底崩溃。

说比特币会解决全局连锁型系统性经济危机，是因为比特币本身并不依赖与一个中心化权力组织的长期存在，任何体系部分都允许被割除和淘汰，也就不存在什么大而不能倒的体系癌症，比特币体系更像一个自然生态体系，优胜劣汰适者生存。

而局部连锁型经济危机不仅比特币体系解决不了，任何其它经济体系都无法解决，因为人类社会总会在不同的局部出现何种意外，瘟疫、灾难、战争、错误的政府政策、错误的经济行为都会导致局部连锁型经济危机，而比特币体系唯一能做的，就是让局部连锁型经济危机所能影响的面积尽可能的小，只是让该局部的组织力量进行组织重组或者资源重构，让局部连锁型经济危机既不会在宏观上把所有人拉入地狱，也不会在微观让普通人民不聊生，因为即使该局部彻底垮台了，这个局部所影响的个体仍然在比特币经济体系的保护之中，他们的人身安全和财产安全仍然是有保障的。
Finally, the so-called chain type of economic crisis, in short which is the gourd Eva save grandpa or big to fail, when there is some nodes in the centralized system has decisive effect to the system as a whole, then the node out of the question, the system will have to take big risks to save the node, and finally make the node the cancer of the entire system cannot be abandoned, sustained damage system health. The typical example is the collapse of many dynasties, the collapse of the planned economy and the subprime crisis when the United States rescued Wall Street with the national Treasury, and China even used domestic quantitative easing to save the United States.

In traditional economic activities, some of the center is not around the past, such as the central government, the central bank, and of the more important large national enterprises, so the problem in these places, people realized the the node has a problem, also can’t let it, as if a person can’t bear your own heart and brain problems, existing economic system also can’t stand the key regional problems. The problem, however, is that once elimination is not allowed, the cancer of the system does not automatically disappear, and the state can of course nationalize itself to take on all the problems, but then the state itself becomes the root of the problem, and the state gets deeper and deeper into the cancer of the system, and more and more burdensome, and eventually the system completely collapses.

Said the currency would solve the global chain of systemic economic crisis, because of the currency itself does not depend on the long-term existence of the organization with a centralized power system of any parts are removed to allow and eliminated, and there’s no big to fail system cancer, the currency system is more like a natural ecological system, superior bad discard the survival of the fittest.

And local chain type cannot solve the economic crisis is not only the currency system, and any other economic system couldn’t find a solution, because the human society come in different local what accident, disease, disaster, war, government policy, errors of economic behavior will lead to local chain type of economic crisis, and the currency system, the only can do is to make local chain type economic crisis can influence area is as small as possible, just let the local resources in the organization restructuring or organize refactoring, let local chain type economic crisis will not everyone on the macro into hell, nor in the micro let ordinary people suffered, Because even if the partial collapse, the affected individuals are still in the protection of the bitcoin economic system, their personal and property safety is still guaranteed.

hslayj:
总之，比特币之于人类文明的意义，大概像太阳光之于地球生态的意义，比特币为人类构建一个永续进化的经济环境提供了可能性，人类将彻底从中心化的王朝式经济周期中解放出来，人类将有可能逃脱出创造后毁灭，毁灭后再创造的文明陷阱，BSV区块链将真正让人类文明进入一个永远可回溯和反思的文明体系中来，这也是比特币体系在人类文明升级中的经济学意义。
In short, the COINS to the significance of human civilization, as the sun is to the earth’s ecological meaning, probably COINS for mankind to build a sustainable evolution of the economic environment provides the possibility that human will completely liberated from centralized dynasty type economic cycles, humans will likely escape destruction, after creating a trap to create after the destruction of civilization, the BSV block chain will really let human civilization into a dating back forever and reflection of the civilization system, which is the currency system of economics in the upgrade of human civilization.

清风徐来:
权力与金钱的分离是我们这一代人面临的巨大社会经济挑战。
The separation of power and money is the great socio-economic challenge of our generation.

hslayj:
权力与金钱彻底分离也不现实，权力还是需要收税的，还是需要养活穷人维持政府运营的，只是各国央行体系会受到比较大冲击，铸币税收起来容易，但是其实给体制带来的危害也是长远和巨大的。
It is unrealistic to completely separate power from money. Power still needs to collect taxes and feed the poor to keep the government running. However, the central bank system of various countries will be greatly impacted.

hslayj:
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hslayj:
今天我来谈谈比特币经济体系可能对未来全球顶级政治架构设计的影响，也就是对联合国架构的影响。

在传统的暴力国家逻辑中，每一次文明更替和国力演变可能都伴随着大规模战争的出现，修昔里德陷阱使得不管是保守势力的没落还是新兴力量的崛起都变成了全人类的战争灾难的源头。我们甚至可以想象没有比特币的今天，在美元霸权一旦没落以后，美国一手卧着经济上不及格的考卷，另一手握着全人类最大的装备武库，他们到底会怎么做，是想想都会后怕的事情，而核力量的存在，会使得人类的毁灭仅仅是一个政治强人手指头就可以决定的事情。所以比特币经济体系下的国际政治逻辑不应该再是这种囚徒困境式的博弈陷阱。
Today I’m going to talk about the impact that the bitcoin economy may have on the future design of the world’s top political architecture, the United Nations.

In the traditional logic of violent states, every change of civilization and evolution of national power may be accompanied by the emergence of large-scale wars. Thucylide trap makes the decline of conservative forces or the rise of new powers become the source of war disasters for all mankind. We can even imagine today, no currency after the dollar hegemony once the decline, the hand lying on economic fail the exam, another hand holding the mankind’s largest equipment armory, what they do, will be dying is that, while the existence of nuclear power, will make the destruction of human is just a strongman fingers can decide things. Therefore, the international political logic under the bitcoin economic system should no longer be such a prisoner’s dilemma game trap.

hslayj:
前几天，我提出比特币国际联盟一旦完成全世界的货币统一和政治统一，那么链内国家因为战争的巨大成本和战争的微小收益不对称问题，将会使军国主义政治思路在短期内退出历史舞台，这个时候我提出一种基于算力平衡的联合国组织架构，用以彻底杜绝暴力再生的可能性。

联合国可以让每一个地区或者国家自愿加入且只能加入一个算力联盟，当一个算力联盟算力过去四年内稳定达到全网10%算力以上的时候，该算力联盟的代表即获得一个联合国大法官席位，并且该算力联盟必须承诺该联盟的算力增长永远不得超过全网算力的20%以上，在这种情况下，联合国大法官席位应该只有6-9位。

每位大法官将拥有一般事件的一票否决权，这样可以保证参与国或者联盟把控自己的政治安全感和经济安全感，当所有大法官都不行使一票否决权的时候，一般案件按照多数票优胜原则判罚，这样既可以防止政治上的多数暴政对少数地区的政治迫害，也可以使得BSV体系有一个正常的法律框架进行保护，防止偷盗、抢劫、洗钱、战争等问题对比特币财产的违法侵犯。

因为是算力决定席位，所以这种体系只关注经济投入，没有意识形态特征，可以充分的尊重地区的文化差异、种族差异、宗教差异。当地区经济萎缩带来了算力退化后，可以通过新增加盟国的方式或者彻底解散该同盟的方式进行算力重组，达成永久的联合国合法化平衡，这种设计方案会使得联合国的存在逻辑既不会被地区强权所垄断，也不会因为文明兴衰更替而彻底丧失话语权，这样的联合国形态是可以永续存在的。

由于整体联合国权力结构相对稳固，而地区权力结构允许重组，那么国家之间的关系就没有了互相的战争制约能力，国家和国家的关系很可能就和现在省和省得关系或者州和州的关系一样，在这种政治结构中，全面的核遏制和军事遏制将变为可能，人们将会把主要力量放到经济建设和竞争上来，而即使胜出的国家可能也因为算力超额而面临着解体问题，不会产生世界的政治单极化问题，而经济衰落或者失败的地区，仍然可以保证底层人民的政治安全、人身安全和财产安全，专心把精力放在家园重建上。

我觉得，这可能是对全人类更好的一种政治形态，当没有政治猜疑链的时候，战争也自然就有可能彻底消失。
A few days ago, I put COINS international union once monetary unification and political unity around the world, so the chain within the country because of the huge cost of war and war of tiny income asymmetry problems, will make militarism in political thinking history in the short term, this time I put forward a kind of based on the force balance of the United Nations organization structure, in order to completely eliminate the possibility of violent regeneration.

UN can let each region or country is willing to join and can only join a work force union, when a work force union work force stability more than 10% cut in work force over the past four years, the work force union representative or gain a justice of the United Nations, and the work force union must be commitment to the alliance’s work force growth above shall not exceed 20% of the entire network to calculate force forever, in this case, the justice of the United Nations should seat only 6-9.

Each justice will have general veto of events, so that the alliance of participating countries or control his political security and economic security, and when all justice does not exercise veto, generally the case in accordance with the principle of majority superior decisions, both to prevent political majority tyranny political persecution in minority areas, and also can make the BSV system has a normal legal framework to protect and prevent the problems such as theft, robbery, money laundering, war of COINS the illegal infringement of the property.

Since the seat is determined by calculation, this system only focuses on economic input, has no ideological characteristics, and fully respects regional cultural, ethnic and religious differences. When regional economic contraction brought force after degradation, can through the way of new Allies or complete dissolution of the alliance’s way to calculate the force restructuring, the legalization of a permanent United Nations balance, this design makes the existence of the United Nations logic neither by regional power monopoly, also won’t say because of the shift of civilization collapse, so the form can be sustainable.

Region due to the overall UN power structure is relatively stable, power structure allows the reorganization, so there is no relationship between the ability of war restrict each other, state and national relationship may now and ministry and province or state and state relations, in the political structure, the comprehensive nuclear containment and deterrence becomes possible, people will put a major force in the economic development and competition, and even winning countries may be facing collapse problem because of the work force excess, won’t produce the world’s political problem of literal, and economic decline or failure of the region, The political security, personal security and property security of the people at the bottom can still be guaranteed, and they can concentrate on the reconstruction of their homes.

I think this is probably a better political form for all of humanity, and when there is no chain of political suspicion, war is likely to disappear.

hslayj:
这样的话，当所有地区大法官无法达成一致时，比特币白皮书就拥有了比特币世界的最高权威解释力，完成比特币协议的长久稳定，而所有地区大法官达成一致时，理论上人类就可以达成对中本聪白皮书协议的修订，这样就防止中本聪去世后白皮书内容和比特币代码内容有Bug的问题给系统带来不稳定冲击，使得比特币白皮书的合法性地位有了永续性的法律依靠和纠错可能。
So, when all parts of justice cannot agree, the currency has the highest authority of the currency world, the white paper explanatory power, complete the long-term stability of the currency agreement, and all the region justice agreed, in theory, the human can reach to the amendments of this agreement of our white paper, this will prevent this power after the death of the white content and COINS in the problem of buggy code brings to the system unstable, makes the legitimacy of the white paper currency status with the sustainability of law rely on and error correction.

Hansi:
我觉得“交易处理者”的算力不能超过20%,这个不太理解，应该是相互竞争和博弈吧？
I don’t think the deal handler can do more than 20% of the math. I don’t understand that.

hslayj:
不能超过20%是为了地域间的实力平衡做的限定，国家联盟要么自己约束自己的算力建设，要么把一个联盟重组成两个，要么让一些加盟国或者地区退出该联盟，这么做主要是防止单极化世界的出现，一旦政治单极化出现，联合国的权力就会慢慢被超级势力所把持，就和今天的美国一样，这样就会形成政治上的猜疑链，就可能给政治军国主义带来复兴的土壤，这些只是我闭门造车的产物，实际情况下会发生什么，我也不知道。
No more than 20% in order to do the balance of power in the region between limited, national league or constraints on their own force construction, either to a union reorganization into two, or let some join quit the countries or regions, so mainly to prevent the occurrence of a unipolar world, once a political literal, the UN’s power will slowly is dominated by super powers, just like today’s America, this will form the suspicion on the political chain, could bring political militarism revival of soil, these are just my product of behind closed doors, the actual case what will happen, I don’t know.

hslayj:
构建这套体系主要还是用博弈论思想，尽量把权力零和博弈的场景转变为共赢博弈场景，很多东西规则不一样，局就不一样，局决定了后期的执行人行为，所以最好的方式就是，一开始就把局设置的尽量合理，比如民族自决原则，虽然初衷很好，但是其博弈结果就变成了今天的民族主义、宗教对立和文化殖民主义，从博弈论角度考虑问题，很多时候会少走很多内耗的弯路。
Build this system mainly use the game theory thought, try to power a zero-sum game scene into a win-win game scenes, a lot of things rules, the bureau is different, the bureau determines the execution behavior of late, so the best way is that the bureau set up reasonable as far as possible, at the beginning, such as the national self-determination principle although original intention is good, but the result of game becomes today’s nationalist and religious and cultural colonialism, consider a problem from the perspective of game theory, a lot of the time will go a lot of internal friction less detours.

hslayj:
如昨天所说，比特币世界如果真的能在遵循算力规则的联合国法规下运作，如果这种全球性政治框架真的能够做到彻底削减地球核武库和军事遏制，能够保证人民在当地政府的破产下，仍然能够保证普通人的人身安全、财产安全和政治安全，那么我认为政府将会出现一种新的组织形态——“有限责任化政府”。“有限责任化政府”可以是小政府也可以是大政府，可以是民主政府也可以是集权政府，这取决于当地民众的文化历史积淀对政治权力的赋能情况，政府的有限责任化有下面几个好处。
As said yesterday, the currency world if it can operate under United Nations rules to follow the rules of work force, if this kind of global political framework can really cut the earth thoroughly nuclear Arsenal and military containment, to ensure that the people in the bankruptcy of the local government, will still be able to guarantee the safety of people and property security and political security, so I think the government would appear a kind of new organization form, “ZeRenHua limited government”. “Limited accountability government” can be a small government or a large government, a democratic government or a centralized government, depending on the local people’s cultural and historical accumulation of political power, the limited accountability of the government has the following advantages.

hslayj:
投资有风险，BSV的政治风险不小，在没有联合国国家组织支持前，BSV是可能遭受政治迫害的，BSV生态没有繁荣前，也可能遭遇链死亡问题，所以需要当成风险投资行为。怎么投资自己查查吧，没有绝对保险的策略。

以后投资行为尽量不要放群里说，免得让我们群像一个非法集资群，我们建立这个群也不是鼓励大家投资BSV的，因为本来就是风险行为，而是探讨BSV的可能性，基本把BSV逻辑搞明白了，比特币逻辑就搞明白了，在区块链领域就不会受骗了，至于BSV到底是否能成，这个是不好说的，因为利益格局的冲击实在太大了，历史的发展很多时候是反复无常的。
The investment is risky, BSV’s political risk is not small, without the support of the United Nations national organization, BSV is likely to suffer political persecution, BSV ecology is not prosperous, may also suffer from the chain of death, so it needs to be regarded as a venture investment behavior. Find out for yourself how to invest. There is no foolproof strategy.

Investment behavior as far as possible don’t put in the group said, after that let’s group a illegal fund-raising group, we set up this group is not encouraged investment BSV, because it is risk behavior, but to look into the possibility of BSV basic logic to understand the BSV, COINS logic to understand, in the field of block chain won’t be cheated, as for the BSV whether can become, that is to say, because is too large for the impact of the pattern of interests, a lot of history of the development of capricious.

hslayj:
继续说“有限责任政府”的话题。

在传统的无限责任政府中，政府由于缺乏明确的量化维度，而只能大包大揽，当政府的权力大到其它力量无法遏制时，人们要么只能将政治领袖神化或者奴化，而无限责任政府的无限权力模式，使得权力博弈是一个非常典型的赢家通吃零和博弈范式，中国历史上非正常死亡的皇帝比例占了总皇帝人数将近一半儿，人们只有祈祷政治家是圣人，或者用任期制政府限制权力蔓延，或者丑化政治人物来完成普通人对政治的恐惧宣泄，但这些措施却可能带来很多其它问题。

“有限责任政府”将使得政治家这个群体正常化，既不会被神化也不会被魔化，既不用自比救世主也不用自比仆人，政治家将享有和普通人同样的权力和义务，使得职业政治家和职业经理人一样成为一个普通职业，由于是被正常程序赋能的，也能被正常程序夺走，因此政治家这个群体甚至可以终身化和高薪化，这将可以使很多真正的人才留在政治领域进行建设和创造。
Let’s move on to limited liability government.

In the tradition of unlimited liability for the government, the government due to the lack of a clear quantitative dimensions, and can only do that when the power of government to other forces cannot contain, or enslaving the people either political leaders will have to be myths, and mode of unlimited power, unlimited liability for the government of the game is a very typical power winner-take-all zero-sum game paradigm, abnormal death of the emperor in the history of Chinese proportion accounted for a total of nearly half the emperor, people only pray politician is a saint, or by adopting a spread, government restrictions on power or defaced politicians to do ordinary people’s fear of political anger, But these measures could cause a host of other problems.

“Limited government” will make politicians normalization, this group can neither business nor be darken, neither from than the savior of the world also need not since more than a servant, politicians will have the same power and obligation, and ordinary people make professional politicians and become a common professional managers, because it is assigned by a normal program can, can also be normal program away, so politicians can even lifelong and high salary, this group will be able to make this a lot of real talent in politics construction and creation.

hslayj:
其次，“有限责任政府”将会使得政府的行为边界更加清晰，政府的正常破产将被允许，那么政治制度的有效性测试将完全是有可能的，当一种政治规则死亡的时候，可能人们需要做的只是重建一个破产城市，而不是去打仗或者怪罪谁，只有能够容错的体制，才可能有基因突变的创新，这将使得政府创新有真正可实行的政治土壤与经济土壤，而创新失败也有很好的退出路径，使得制度创新的苦果只需要承担经济上的损失，而不会在造成人们的财产清零或者人身安全威胁。

国家主义与人本主义观念将不会再发生冲突，因为国家或者政府的形态改变将变得相对来说更容易，而人本主义的思维将成为所有发展主义的原动力，因为人类的基因是经过数以亿年沉淀下来的，要去改变人性可能需要几百万年的定向进化和淘汰，而制度形态和集体形态的改变在这种情况下，在有限责任政府的规则下，将会更加容易，个人也不会因为财产安全和人身安全而被迫绑在国家主义等集体主义的战车车轮上。
Second, the “limited government” will make the government’s behavior boundaries clear, the government’s normal bankruptcy will be allowed, then test the effectiveness of the political system will be completely is possible, when a kind of political rule of death, people may need to do is to rebuild a city bankruptcy, rather than go to war or whom to blame, only to fault tolerance system, just may have a genetic mutation of innovation, it will have a really can make government innovation practice of political and economic soil, and innovation failure also has a good exit path, make institutional innovation only need to bear the burden of economic losses, It’s not a threat to people’s property or their safety.

Nationalism and humanistic concept conflict will not happen again, because the morphology change of the country or the government will become relatively more easily, and humanistic thinking will become all the motive force of the development of socialism, because human genes is after hundreds of settling down in one hundred million, is going to change human nature may require millions of years of directed evolution and eliminated, and system configuration and change, in this case, in the form of collective under the rule of limited government, will be more easy, individuals with property security and personal safety, also won’t tied to the national socialist collectivism chariot wheels.

hslayj:
最后，在算力联合国的顶层政治逻辑和比特币底层经济逻辑的架构中，中间层的比特城市与比特国家（或者比特城市联盟）的政治逻辑将会非常清晰，这也为政府的“有限责任化”提供了可能性，比特城市的发展路径主要遵循尽可能的发展本地经济吸引全球有限的比特经济链的产业在本地落户，寻求本地市民的支持；而比特国家（或者比特城市联盟）的发展路径将是尽可能的保证参与城市的政治权力和合法秩序，提供单一城市无法提供的各类政治服务，如灾难管理、政治协调、纠纷处理等等。而当比特城市无法赢得全球化产业竞争的时候，该城市会逐渐的枯萎，这使得地方保护主义渐渐变得不可行，而当比特国家（或者比特城市联盟）无法保护旗下的比特城市的正常秩序时，比特国家（或者比特城市联盟）也将面临国家重组或者加盟城市出逃的政治风险。

在这样的逻辑中，没有任何一个城市是不可破产的，没有任何一个国家是不可淘汰的，这反而使得全人类的经济健康得以延续，不会被地方保护主义行为而限制了全球贸易发展的趋势方向，人类的地缘政治博弈逻辑，也将彻底从暴力竞争转向经济与秩序竞争，完成人类文明底层逻辑的政治升级。
Finally, in the work force at the top of the United Nations political logic and the currency of the underlying economic logic architecture, the middle city of bits in the national urban league (or bits) with bits of political logic will be very clear, this also is the government’s “limited ZeRenHua” provides the possibility that bit of the city development path that followed the development of local economy as much as possible to attract global economic chain of industrial limited bits at the local, to seek the support of the local people; The development path of bit-state (or bit-city alliance) will be to ensure the political power and legal order of participating cities as much as possible, and provide all kinds of political services that a single city cannot provide, such as disaster management, political coordination, dispute settlement, etc. And when the bit city cannot win industry competition of globalization, the city will gradually wither, this makes local protectionism is not feasible, the national urban league (or bits) and when the bit unable to protect its normal order of the city of bits, bit national urban league (or bits) will also face the state restructuring or join city fleeing political risk.

In this logic, there is no any city is bankrupt, no any country cannot be eliminated, this makes possible the continuation of the economic health of mankind, not by local protectionism and limit the direction of the trend of the development of the global trade, human geopolitical game logic, also will completely from violent competition to economy and order competition, political upgrade to complete the underlying logic of human civilization.

hslayj:
其实搞明白了区块链对于人类社会文明改变的意义，就明白了为什么除了BSV以外，其它链或者币都不可能成功的原因，要改变人类文明的底层逻辑，仅仅靠数字货币信用化（BTC）是没有用的，仅仅靠数字现金（BCH）信用化也是没有用的，仅仅靠行业数据信用化（行业链）同样是没用的，只有多维度长时间积累的万链归一逻辑才能支撑全人类信息数据的信用化，也才可能为诚实权力规则打好底层技术基础，一个人对于一件事情的数据是信息，许许多多不同人在同一件事情的数据的长时间积累才能成为信用，也只有真正多维度的数据信用才能支撑起整个人类的底层文明升级，人类革命的终极神器跑到币圈诈骗犯那里反而成了韭菜刀了，说比特币是明珠蒙尘一点都不过分，改变这种既定现实并将之发扬光大也是我们这一代人的使命。
Actually understand the chain block for changing the meaning of the human society civilization, will understand why besides BSV, why other chain or currency are unlikely to succeed, to change the underlying logic of human civilization, just by digital currency XinYongHua (BTC) is useless, only the digital cash (BCH) XinYongHua is useless, only rely on industry data XinYongHua industry chain is also useless, only multidimensional long time accumulation of chain owned by a logic to support XinYongHua information data to all mankind, also can only be as honest power rules play the underlying technology foundation, One is the information for data of one thing, many, many different people in the same thing long time accumulation of data to be a credit, only truly multidimensional data credit can also upgrade supporting the bottom layer of the whole human civilization, human revolution of ultimate artifact to currency laps fraudsters there become leek knife instead, say the currency is the pearl of dust is not too much, and change the established reality carry forward is the mission of our generation.

hslayj:
the Bank of England (BoE), is that it might be more beneficial to
turn to a private digital currency, instead of trying to build a
completely new alternative.

英国不愧是曾经的世界帝国，金融体系里面还是有明白人的。

Britain is a former world empire, and there are smart people in the financial system.

Share Link

hslayj:
国有中央银行介入数字货币发展的想法越来越受关注，尤其是当冠状病毒迫使人们改变在全球范围内看待货币的方式时。国际清算银行（BIS）最近表示，越来越多的政府正在参与探索这一可能性，英国是最早考虑使用中央银行数字货币（CBDC）的国家之一。由英国中央银行（BoE）决定的事情之一是，转向私人数字货币可能比尝试建立全新的替代货币更为有利。
大约两年前，英国央行开始探索 CBDC，自那时以来一直在继续努力。最近，它开始探索数字货币的用例，同时承认替代方案可能会对当前的银行和金融结构产生负面影响。不过，似乎轮盘已经开始运转了，英国央行分析师昨天在一次网络研讨会上表示，私人实体最终可能会提供比中央银行设计更好的数字解决方案。
——摘自上面链接的一部分翻译

清风徐来:
Bitcoin Association即将启动一系列开发者活动，各位有才华的开发者可以与BA共同在国内最大的开发者平台共同搭建BSV开发专区，可以与nChain研究团队每周定期线上交流学习。
请感兴趣参与的开发者添加微信：bitcoinassociation
微信通过后，请主动声名：参与开发者活动
Bitcoin Association is about to launch a series of developer activities, in which talented developers can jointly build the BSV development zone on the largest developer platform in China together with BA, and have regular weekly online communication and learning with the research team of nChain.
Interested developers are invited to add WeChat: bitcoinassociation
After wechat, please take the initiative to declare: participate in developer activities

hslayj:
今天聊一下比特币世界比较有可能的税收问题，由于之前讨论过的政府有限责任化问题，那么政府本身无法通过赤字、印钞、降息、降准等当代手段来完成社会财务控制的工作，于是税收环节对政府财政来说将非常重要，甚至直接关乎到了一个城市的兴衰和一个城市联盟的健壮性。

在比特币世界中，因为政府没有货币手段，因此政府必须用财政储备替代财政赤字应对外部环境的不确定性，财政储备低的政府，在面对灾难和各类突发性事件时，一方面可以通过自己的财政储备或者危机债券度过难关，另一方面可以寻求所在城市联盟的援助，而所有的行为，都是可以通过比特币这个经济尺度去准确衡量的，当一个城市长期处于债务赤字中时，将没有人愿意搭上自己的比特币安全去长期补贴该城市的财政，这使得城市破产在经济逻辑上非常清晰。

另一方面，由于全球城市都处于对经济产业的渴求和竞争中，因此政府和公司会形成一个二元制衡局面，一方面地方政府会挑选入驻本地的企业，同样公司也将拥有挑选企业地方的选择，在长期的双向博弈中，公司由于有更好的流动性而获得博弈主动性，政府将不得不通过降低增值税和个人税的方式使得公司和个人落地，我倾向于认为，最后的博弈均衡点，应该是政府将无法收取任何的个人所得税和公司增值税，政府必须寻求其它税收来源。
Today chat COINS more likely tax issues in the world, because of limited government discussed earlier ZeRenHua problem, so the government itself cannot by dropping prospective deficits, print, cut, modern means such as to complete the social financial control work, will be very important for the government fiscal and tax link, even directly related to the rise and fall of a city and a city the robustness of the alliance.

In the currency in the world, because the government is monetary means, so the government must use fiscal reserves instead of fiscal deficit deal with the uncertainty of external environment, the government fiscal reserves are low, in the face of disaster and all kinds of unexpected events, on the one hand, through their own bonds through fiscal reserves or crisis, on the other hand can seek aid the city alliance, and all the behavior, can be through the currency to accurately measure the economic scale, when a city budget deficit for a long time, no one is willing to take on their own currency security to the city’s fiscal subsidies, for a long time This makes the economic logic of city bankruptcy very clear.

, on the other hand, because of the global cities are thirst for economic industry and competition, so the government and the company will form a binary checks and balances, on the one hand, the local government will choose in local enterprises, company will also have same place choice, choose enterprises in long-term double game, company with better liquidity for game initiative, the government will have to reduce VAT and personal taxes through the way that companies and individuals fall to the ground, I’m inclined to think that the final game equilibrium, should be the government will not be able to charge any personal income tax and value-added tax, the government must seek other revenue sources.

hslayj:
政府的税收来源我倾向于认为将更多具备功能财产性税收。

首先，是房产税，由于房产本身的价值直接取决于城市的建设质量，因此该税收可能是政府财政的最好收入来源，而房产税与财富水平密切相关，富人住的自然是好房子和贵房子，穷人住的是小房子和便宜房子，所以税收结构来说比较合理，税收征收的难度也会非常低，因为房子的价值和地段都是透明的，一般纳税人很难逃税；房产税第二个好处是可以降低房产的金融属性，使得房子是用来住的，而不是用来投资的，这会让本地的投资性房产退出金融市场，使得穷人可以有地方住，不至于激化因为穷人居住权受损带来的地区性贫富矛盾，影响城市的安定团结；房产税的第三个好处，该税收直接取决于城市建设质量，大城市和富裕城市自然能收的更多，小城市和穷城市收的相对较小；房产税是一种长期稳定的税收来源，使得城市的财政有基本的税基保障，不至于每天为基本工资发愁。
Government revenue sources I tend to think there will be more functional property taxes.

First of all, is the property tax, because the value of the property itself quality directly depends on the construction of city, so the tax is likely to be the best source of income, government finance and real estate tax is closely related to the level of wealth, the rich live in nature is a good house and your house, the poor live in a small house and cheap, so the tax structure is reasonable, the difficulty of the tax will also is very low, because the value of the house and area is transparent, general taxpayers tax evasion; Property tax second benefit is can reduce the real estate financial attributes, makes the house is to live, not to invest, it makes the local investment property out of financial markets, allowing the poor to have a place to live, not intensified because of regional conflict between the rich and the poor, the poor residency damaged stability and unity of the city; A third benefit of a property tax is that it depends directly on the quality of the city’s construction. Property tax is a long-term and stable source of tax revenue, so that the city’s financial security has a basic tax base, not to worry about the basic wage every day.

hslayj:
其次，是量化垃圾税，也就是垃圾按量收费，比如按公斤、按排水量、排气量或者按照体积等量化指标，由于垃圾问题是当代城市管理的一个大问题，仅仅靠政府号召进行垃圾分类、垃圾焚烧、垃圾掩埋可能都会带来比较大的环境灾难，因此垃圾处理问题应该成为一个新兴的创新市场，积极引入各种各样的垃圾处理手段，而这就需要极大的资本投入和市场驱动。而量化垃圾税会使得垃圾处理不仅可以引入商业和资本，也可以积极的降低垃圾生产意愿，使得垃圾在生产层面得到遏制、在处理层面引进商业创新能力和资本驱动力。
Is second, quantitative garbage tax, that is, garbage metering, such as displacement, displacement, or according to kg, according to according to the quantitative indexes such as volume, because the garbage problem is a big problem of contemporary urban management, only the government called on garbage classification, garbage incineration and landfill are likely to bring bigger environmental disaster, so the garbage disposal problem should become an innovation in emerging markets, actively introduce all kinds of garbage disposal method, which requires a great deal of capital investment and market driven. Quantified garbage tax can not only introduce business and capital into garbage treatment, but also actively reduce the willingness to produce garbage, so that garbage can be contained at the production level and commercial innovation ability and capital driving force can be introduced at the treatment level.

hslayj:
第三，是消费税，城市完全可以和BSV钱包商户合作，在一个城市普及BSV钱包标准，每一个商户都只能通过该标准的钱包进行账款的清算和记录，这样在普通商户进行购物的同时，消费税就被收上来了，这样的收税模式基本没有税务成本，因为只要保证所有商户都用标准钱包就行了，没用钱包行为的直接按照逃税举报就可以，这样可能一个城市用一个逃税办公室就能彻底征收整个城市的消费税。另外，消费税完全可以针对不同商品进行不同税率的调整，奢饰品和高端消费品可以采取高税率，日用品和低端消费品可以采取低税率，尽量把税收在富人身上，缓解贫富矛盾。
Third, consumption tax, city merchants cooperation, can completely and BSV purse in a city universal standard BSV purse, each merchants can only through the standard wallet clearing of accounts and records, so the general merchants to shopping at the same time, the consumption tax has been closed up, such a tax model basic tax cost, as long as the guarantee all merchants with standard wallet, useless wallet behavior of report can be in accordance with the tax evasion, so can a city with a tax evasion office can complete the whole city of GST. In addition, the consumption tax can be adjusted to different tax rates for different goods. Luxury goods and high-end consumer goods can be taxed at a high rate, while daily necessities and low-end consumer goods can be taxed at a low rate, so as to tax the rich as much as possible and ease the contradiction between the rich and the poor.

hslayj:
第四，是道路使用税，城市完全可以用大数据的方式对不同道路的不同高峰点进行道路的价格差异化收税，不同的天气、时间点、节假日、热点事件、道路维修都对应不同的城市道路税收，完成道路使用权的市场化，每台车子通过政府统一标准的GPS来完成税收的记录工作，GPS数据上BSV后属于个人数据，收税的时候，把该数据交给政府进行税务清算，这使得城市的交通拥堵问题不再需要大量的交通警察和交通资源来处理，降低城市的交通管理成本和交通拥堵损失，使得城市没有交通拥堵而政府还有税收来源，真正做到政府与市民的双赢选择。
Fourth, is the road to use tax, city can use big data on different roads of different peaks of price differential, different weather, the time point, holidays, hot issues, road maintenance, corresponding to different urban road tax, to use the marketization road, each car with the government’s unified GPS work to complete tax records, GPS data on BSV belong to personal data, after tax, put the data to the government for tax liquidation, this makes the urban traffic congestion problem is no longer needed to handle a large number of traffic police and traffic resources, Reduce the traffic management cost and traffic congestion loss of the city, so that the city has no traffic congestion and the government has the source of tax revenue, and truly achieve a win-win choice between the government and citizens.

hslayj:
最后，是遗产税，个人认为这个可能是比较难收但是又不得不收的税，甚至可能要在联合国层面立法进行全人类的最小遗产税约定，并且这个税率要在可执行的前提下尽可能的高。如果没有遗产税，大量的一代富豪创造的财富流转到二代富豪手里甚至三代富豪手里时，因为富豪后代不一定有富豪本身的财富驾驭能力，而使得财富不仅对于富豪后代来说还是社会来说，都可能造成财富灾难，富豪后代可能不得不面对一辈子走下坡路的窘境，也会让整个社会的财富创造意愿减弱，当累计足够长的时间后，甚至可能出现比较大的社会鸿沟。对于富一代来说，人们当然会尊重他的财富创造旅程和财产权，但是对于富二代来说，穷二代很可能将这种差异视为阶层剥削，激化贫富矛盾和社会矛盾，使得比特币的永续逻辑在根本上发生动摇，甚至可能诞生例如将全世界无产者联合起来的共产主义思潮，重新让世界走向撕裂，不管是对富人来说还是对穷人来说，这种局面绝对是双输的。
Finally, there is inheritance tax, which I think may be difficult to collect but has to be collected. It may even be necessary to legislate at the level of the United Nations for a minimum inheritance tax for all mankind, and the tax rate should be as high as possible under the premise of being enforceable. If there is no inheritance tax, a large number of rich generation create wealth transfer to the second generation rich even third generation hand in hand, because of the rich offspring may not have the wealth of the rich itself ability, and makes not only for rich offspring or social wealth, is likely to cause disaster, rich future generations may have to face a lifetime down, also make the whole social wealth creation will abate, when the cumulative after long enough, even larger social gap may occur. For rich generation, of course, people would respect his journey of wealth creation and property rights, but for the rich second generation, poor second generation is likely to see the difference as class exploitation, intensified and the social contradictions between the rich and the poor, making the currency sustainable logic fundamentally changed, and may even birth such as communist ideological trend of the world unite, to let the world to tear, for rich or for poor people, this situation is absolutely lose-lose.

hslayj:
税收的种类以后肯定还会有别的，不过税收的思路将不是政府需要什么，人们就该交什么，因为政府也面临着地缘经济竞争和全球贸易竞争，而是政府做到的东西换来的社会反馈，这将使得政府的功能性得以强化，使得政府和公司一样有更好的服务意愿和创造意愿，政府也同样因为会被淘汰而产生危机感和改良意愿，这使得全新的政治进化逻辑有了更好的财务理由，完成人类文明底层单元的逻辑进化。
Later sure there will be other kinds of tax, but the thinking of tax will not need anything, government people what to pay, because the government is faced with the economic geography of competition and global trade competition, but the government to do something in return for social feedback, this will make the government’s function is reinforced, the government and companies have better services will and create desire, the government also will be eliminated because of the sense of crisis and improvement will produce, which makes the new political evolution logic with better financial reason, to complete the unit at the bottom of the logical evolution of human civilization.

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hslayj:
不以人类命运共同体的角度思考问题，国家主义的战场注定了是一个伤敌一千、自损八百的负和游戏博弈，放到美国、中国身上都一样，跳不出这个全球政治斗争泥沼，人类就不可能有明天，我们专心打造好我们的诺亚方舟，等到那些老古董对抗主义思潮把事情搞得一团糟的时候，希望能多救些人吧。
Not to the problem of human destiny community perspective of nationalism doomed battle is a hurt, the loss of eight hundred one thousand negative and game, the game is the same in the United States, China, jump out of the world’s political struggle, the human is impossible to have tomorrow, we concentrate on building our Noah’s ark, wait until those dull against socialist ideological trend to mess things up, hope to be able to save some more.

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